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LaLiga 2 predictions

Castellón, with a 62 % chance of finishing as champions according to 10.000 simulations of the rest of the LaLiga 2 season with our model.

2026-27 season · updated Tuesday 10 November

Matchday 14 predictions →

Season probabilities10.000 simulations · title chances Castellón 62%Almeria 29%Granada CF 4% See all probabilities →

Promotion and survival: the race so far

League champion

Castellón62%Almeria29%Granada CF4%

Automatic promotion (top 2)

Castellón87%Almeria70%Granada CF18%

Promotion play-off (3–6)

Eibar67%Granada CF66%Burgos60%

Relegation (bottom 4)

AD Ceuta FC97%Albacete69%Leganes66%

How to read it: we simulate the remaining 322 matches 10.000 times with our model. 40% means the team finishes in that zone in 4 out of 10 simulated seasons; it is not a fixed prediction and it changes every week with the results.

Upcoming fixtures

LaLiga 2LL2 · MD14 Fri 13 Nov
Leganes crest Leganes 20:30 Estadio Municipal de Butarque Burgos crest Burgos

Leganes and Burgos meet on LaLiga 2 matchday 14 in very different shape: Leganes have lost 7 of their last 10 matches and play on just 3 days' rest, while Burgos are third on 24 points. Burgos have won 3 of their 4 away matches, though they have conceded 7 goals in them.

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Latest results

LaLiga 2LL2 · MD13 Open today FT
Sabadell crest Sabadell 0–0 FT Real Sociedad II crest Real Sociedad II
Estimated probability1 · X · 2
149%
X27%
224%
1X2 · 1 ✗ Over/under 2.5 · Over 2.5 ✗ Both teams to score · Yes ✗

Sabadell arrive at the Nova Creu Alta in better shape than Real Sociedad II: they have won 3 of their 5 home matches, while Real Sociedad II have lost 4 of their last 5 and conceded 11 goals in 5 away matches. Sabadell have a 49% chance of a home win, though the draw stands at 27% because they failed to score in 3 matches. Both teams to score comes in at 53%.

LaLiga 2LL2 · MD13 Open today FT
Las Palmas crest Las Palmas 2–0 FT Eldense crest Eldense
Estimated probability1 · X · 2
145%
X26%
229%
1X2 · 1 ✓ Over/under 2.5 · Under 2.5 ✓ Both teams to score · Yes ✗

Las Palmas go into the matchday 13 meeting with Eldense holding a slight edge at home (45%), while Eldense sit 15th in LaLiga 2 on 14 points after 12 matches, despite winning three of their five away games. A draw remains very much alive (26%) and 1-1 is the most likely exact score. Over 2.5 goals stands at 48%, and both teams to score at 50%.

LaLiga 2LL2 · MD13 FT
Sporting Gijon crest Sporting Gijon 1–2 FT Valladolid crest Valladolid
Estimated probability1 · X · 2
142%
X29%
229%
1X2 · 1 ✗ Over/under 2.5 · Under 2.5 ✗ Both teams to score · Yes ✓

Sporting Gijon arrive in better form than Valladolid: they are sixth in the league table with 22 points and have won 4 of their last 5, while Valladolid have won only 1 of their 4 away matches. The edge is narrow, at 42% for a home win, 29% for a draw and 29% for an away win. On goals, there is 44% for over 2.5 and 50% for both teams to score.

LaLiga 2LL2 · MD13 FT
Girona crest Girona 0–1 FT Almeria crest Almeria
Estimated probability1 · X · 2
145%
X27%
229%
1X2 · 1 ✗ Over/under 2.5 · Over 2.5 ✗ Both teams to score · Yes ✗

Almeria arrive better placed in the league table, second on 26 points with 8 wins in their last 10 matches, but Girona play at Montilivi, where they have scored 10 goals in 5 home matches. The advantage for Girona is a slim one: 45% for a home win, 27% for a draw and 29% for Almeria. Over 2.5 goals stands at 51% and both teams to score at 53%.

LaLiga 2LL2 · MD13 FT
Cordoba crest Cordoba 3–0 FT AD Ceuta FC crest AD Ceuta FC
Estimated probability1 · X · 2
155%
X24%
221%
1X2 · 1 ✓ Over/under 2.5 · Over 2.5 ✓ Both teams to score · Yes ✗

Cordoba and AD Ceuta FC meet on matchday 13 with a record of goals: in four of their last five meetings both sides scored, the latest a 3-2 in February. At the Estadio Nuevo Arcángel, Cordoba have a 55% chance of a home win, against 24% for a draw and 21% for an away win. Over 2.5 goals stands at 64% and both teams to score at 62%.

LaLiga 2LL2 · MD13 FT
Leganes crest Leganes 1–3 FT Albacete crest Albacete
Estimated probability1 · X · 2
149%
X28%
223%
1X2 · 1 ✗ Over/under 2.5 · Under 2.5 ✗ Both teams to score · No ✗

Leganes host Albacete at Butarque with a slight edge: a 49% chance of a home win against 23% for the visitors. Their last meeting finished 0-0, and the draw stands at 28%. On goals, 46% for over 2.5 and 49% that both teams score.

LaLiga 2LL2 · MD13 FT
Cadiz crest Cadiz 1–2 FT Oviedo crest Oviedo
Estimated probability1 · X · 2
143%
X27%
230%
1X2 · 1 ✗ Over/under 2.5 · Over 2.5 ✓ Both teams to score · Yes ✓

Cadiz go into matchday 13 of LaLiga 2 with a slight edge as they host Oviedo at the JP Financial Estadio: a 43% chance of a home win against 30% for the visitors. The draw stands at 27%. Goals look possible at both ends, with 59% for both teams to score and 57% for over 2.5 goals, and 1-1 is the most probable scoreline.

LaLiga 2LL2 · MD13 FT
Burgos crest Burgos 2–1 FT Celta de Vigo II crest Celta de Vigo II
Estimated probability1 · X · 2
155%
X25%
220%
1X2 · 1 ✓ Over/under 2.5 · Over 2.5 ✓ Both teams to score · Yes ✓

Burgos host Celta de Vigo II at El Plantío on matchday 13 of LaLiga 2, with a 55% chance of a home win. A draw stands at 25% and an away win at 20%. Both teams to score is put at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 57%. The two sides met twice in 2021, finishing 1-0 and 1-1.

Questions about LaLiga 2

Who is favourite to win LaLiga 2?

Castellón, with a 62 % chance of finishing as champions according to 10.000 simulations of the rest of the LaLiga 2 season with our model.

Who is top of LaLiga 2?

Almeria lead LaLiga 2 with 29 points from 13 matches.

What is the next LaLiga 2 match?

Leganes v Burgos, on Friday 13 November (Matchday 14). The prediction and analysis are on its page.

Who is most likely to be promoted from LaLiga 2?

According to our simulations, the teams most likely to win automatic promotion (top 2) are Castellón (87 %), Almeria (70 %), Granada CF (18 %). It is a probability, not a certainty: it is recalculated after every matchday.

Who is most at risk of relegation in LaLiga 2?

According to our simulations, the teams most at risk of finishing in the 4 relegation places are AD Ceuta FC (97 %), Albacete (69 %), Leganes (66 %). The figure is updated every week with the results.

How does PronosLab calculate its probabilities?

We combine our own statistical model (Poisson and Elo) with form, absences, weather and news for every LaLiga 2 match; a verifier checks every figure before publishing and all hits and misses are public.