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According to the PronosLab analysis, Las Palmas have a 45% chance of beating Eldense, the draw 26% and an away win 29% (LaLiga 2, Monday 9 November). Final score: 2-0.

Positive signal for Las Palmas

Las Palmas vs Eldense prediction

LaLiga 2 · MD13 FT

Prediction

Low
Sealed Mon 9 Nov 14:50 f20bec4bf8

Analysis produced with our own statistical model and artificial intelligence from official match data. Every figure is checked automatically against our database before publication, and the prediction is sealed before kick-off. How we work

OutcomeProb.
1 Las Palmas win 45%
X Draw 26%
2 Eldense win 29%
Goals −2,5 ✓ Both teams to score Yes ✗

Recent form

Las Palmas crest Las Palmas
10thPosition
WDWLL
Eldense crest Eldense
15thPosition
LWLWW
LL2-3499LaLiga 2 · MD13
FT 2–0
  1. Las Palmas10th · Home
  2. Estadio de Gran CanariaMonday 9 November
  3. Eldense15th · Away
PronosLab analystVerified data
Las Palmas crest Las Palmas Eldense crest Eldense 12 °C · Rain 0%
Las Palmas win 45%
Draw 26%
Eldense win 29%

Prediction post-mortem

Called it

We expected a home win for Las Palmas, with fewer goals more likely than an open game, and a real chance that both sides would score. Las Palmas beat Eldense 2-0 in matchday 13 after a goalless first half. The home win and under 2.5 goals both landed. We missed on both teams to score: Eldense did not find the net, and that was the weakest point of our reading, since they have gone four matches without scoring.

We publish a post-mortem of every prediction, right or wrong. See our full track record →

You vs the AI

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YouYou didn't play
PronosLab1-01 pts
Result2-0Las Palmas

Analyst's view

Verified data

Las Palmas go into the matchday 13 meeting with Eldense holding a slight edge at home (45%), while Eldense sit 15th in LaLiga 2 on 14 points after 12 matches, despite winning three of their five away games. A draw remains very much alive (26%) and 1-1 is the most likely exact score. Over 2.5 goals stands at 48%, and both teams to score at 50%.

What moved the probability

Where every figure in the prediction comes from: the statistical model, the market and what the analyst changed with data. Pick an outcome.

Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 42.5%
MarketAverage with the market’s implied probability, margin removed +0.5
Analyst adjustmentDriven by model · stats · weather +2.1
Published predictionLas Palmas win 45.1%
Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 28.0%
MarketAverage with the market’s implied probability, margin removed −0.3
Analyst adjustmentDriven by model · stats · weather −1.4
Published predictionDraw 26.3%
Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 29.5%
MarketAverage with the market’s implied probability, margin removed −0.1
Analyst adjustmentDriven by model · stats · weather −0.8
Published predictionEldense win 28.6%

Figures are the ones stored at publication. The analysis only moved away from the reference with verifiable data.

Who will score?

With confirmed line-up

Las Palmas

  1. 1
    Jesé Forward · 4 goals in 754 min
    27%
  2. 2
    Manu Fuster Forward · 2 goals in 788 min
    21%
  3. 3
    T. Miyashiro Midfielder · 3 goals in 1.049 min
    14%
  4. 4
    Iván Jaime Midfielder · 2 goals in 813 min
    12%
  5. 5
    Valentín Pezzolesi Defender · 2 goals in 1.170 min
    8%

Eldense

  1. 1
    Jorge Rastrojo Forward · 3 goals in 559 min
    20%
  2. 2
    M. Carmona Forward · 2 goals in 474 min
    18%
  3. 3
    Marcos Bustillo Forward · 0 goals in 323 min
    14%
  4. 4
    Roberto López Midfielder · 1 goal in 306 min
    8%
  5. 5
    Fidel Midfielder · 2 goals in 1.004 min
    8%

Chance of scoring at least once: their team's expected goals in this match × their season scoring rate (smoothed) × the minutes they're expected to play. Confirmed absentees left out. An estimate, not a guarantee.

More match probabilities

Model · no AI

Who avoids defeat

  • Las Palmas avoid defeat71%
  • No draw74%
  • Eldense avoid defeat55%

Goals

  • Over 1.5 goals72%
  • Over 2.5 goals48%
  • Over 3.5 goals25%

Expected goals: 2.6

Most likely scorelines

  • Las Palmas 1 – 1 Eldense12.5%
  • Las Palmas 1 – 0 Eldense11.3%
  • Las Palmas 2 – 1 Eldense9.0%
  • Las Palmas 0 – 1 Eldense8.6%
  • Las Palmas 2 – 0 Eldense8.2%

Goals and scorelines come from the expected goals behind our 1X2; corners and cards from each team's recent matches with stats (and the referee). These are estimates, not guarantees.

Match timeline

22
  1. Javier Calleja Revilla Yellow card
    24'
  2. Roberto López Yellow card
    30'
  3. Justin Smith Yellow card
    31'
  4. Jesús Clemente Corcho Yellow card
    35'
  5. Half-time
  6. Jesús Clemente Corcho VAR · Goal cancelled
    53'
  7. Juan Larios López Yellow card
    60'
  8. Fidel On · off Aingeru Olabarrieta
    66'
  9. Roberto López On · off Jorge Martin Camunas
    66'
  10. Jorge Rastrojo On · off Pau Cabanes De La Torre
    66'
  11. Alex Suárez Yellow card
    68'
  12. Manu Fuster On · off Ale García
    68'
  13. Andrés Rodríguez Martínez On · off Adrián Rodríguez del Rosario
    68'
  14. Mariano Emilio Carmona Cerezo On · off Waldo Rubio
    72'
  15. Jesé Rodríguez On · off Jefte Betancor Sanchez
    77'
  16. Alex Serradell Garralaga Yellow card
    79'
  17. Taisei Miyashiro On · off Sandro Ramírez
    84'
  18. Marcos Bustillo Aquesolo On · off Carlos Guirao Mora
    87'
  19. Jorge Martin Camunas Yellow card
    89'
  20. Iker Recio Ortega Yellow card
    89'
  21. Alex Suárez Goal · assist by Iván Jaime
    90+5'1-0
  22. Jefte Betancor Sanchez Goal · assist by Sandro Ramírez
    90+8'2-0
  23. Jefte Betancor Sanchez Yellow card
    90+8'
  24. Full-time

Goals, cards, substitutions and VAR decisions from the official match data; updated every minute during the game.

Match stats

Full time
Las PalmasPronosLab dominanceEldense

Our own index: 70% danger created (shots on target, shots inside the box, total shots, corners and xG) and 30% possession.

Las Palmas expected goals1.22 xGscored 2
Eldense expected goals0.39 xGscored 0
  • 62% Possession 38%
  • 12 Shots 7
  • 5 Shots on target 1
  • 8 Shots inside the box 4
  • 5 Corners 2
  • 1 Saves 3
  • 552 Passes 342
  • 11 Fouls 23
  • 4 Offsides 4
  • 2 Yellow cards 7
  • 0 Red cards 0

Official match data. Updated every minute while live.

Live probability

>99%Las Palmas <1%Draw 0%Eldense
  • 54'Eldense goal (0-1): their chance of winning went from 24% to 67%.
  • 45'Eldense goal (0-0): their chance of winning went from 67% to 25%.
  • 96'Las Palmas goal (1-0): their chance of winning went from 4% to 97%.
  • 99'Las Palmas goal (2-0): their chance of winning went from 97% to >99%.

It starts from our pre-match prediction and is recalculated with the score and the minute, without AI. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Official line-ups

Confirmed

Starting elevens announced by the clubs before kick-off (updated at 20:05).

Las Palmas4-4-2
13José Caro
23A. Rodriguez
15Juan Herzog
4Álex Suárez
25V. Pezzolesi
24Iván Jaime
20Kirian Rodríguez
12E. Loiodice
11T. Miyashiro
14Manu Fuster
10Jesé

Manager Albert Sánchez

Bench (12)
  • 35Adrián SuárezGK
  • 9J. RecobaMID
  • 44Adrián Rodríguez del RosarioDEF
  • 7Jefté BetancorFWD
  • 26A. BassingaMID
  • 16Mateo AcimovicMID
  • 21G. BonfantiDEF
  • 32Rafa CruzFWD
  • 22Ale GarcíaMID
  • 3N. OpokuDEF
  • 19Sandro RamírezFWD
  • 29Elías RomeroFWD
Eldense4-2-3-1
1Ramón Vila
3Juan Larios
2Iker Recio
5Alex Serradell
17Jesús Clemente
8Marcos Bustillo
14J. Smith
7Jorge Rastrojo
12Roberto López
10Fidel
9M. Carmona

Manager Javi Calleja

Bench (12)
  • 4F. SmandDEF
  • 19A. IbarrondoFWD
  • 23Jordi MartínDEF
  • 24Javi MartínezMID
  • 11Manu NietoFWD
  • 33Aingeru OlabarrietaFWD
  • 34J. OlaizolaDEF
  • 13JuanpaGK
  • 20Waldo RubioFWD
  • 21D. RuizDEF
  • 15Carlos GuiraoMID
  • 16Pau CabanesFWD

Official match data. The absences and doubts above are updated with the official report.

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What's at stake

2/5
Regular match
  • One of them is fighting relegation
  • Top-tier league

Match importance computed from the table, the season simulation, the round and the rivalry.

Rest and travel

Eldense come in with 1 more day of rest.

Las Palmas 20/100
Normal load
Rest
7 days
Games in 14 days
2
Travel in 14 days
7.411 km
Next game
6 days LaLiga Hypermotion
Eldense 16/100
Fresh
Rest
8.3 days
Games in 14 days
2
Travel in 14 days
2.441 km
Next game
6 days LaLiga Hypermotion

Index from 0 to 100 built from rest days, games in every competition we follow, kilometres between stadiums and whether they play again within 4 days.

Recent form

Las PalmasEldense
Goals scored per game
1.201.20
Goals conceded per game
1.601.10
League position
10th 20 pts 15th 14 pts

Head to head

Last 1
1Las Palmas
0Draws
0Eldense
  • 9 Nov 2026 Las Palmas2–0Eldense

Team news

No significant absences confirmed.

Key facts

How do Las Palmas and Eldense come into the match?

Las Palmas are 10th on 20 points and Eldense 15th on 14.

How did the last meeting end?

The last meeting, on 09/11/2026, finished Las Palmas 2-0 Eldense.

Other LaLiga 2 fixtures

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