According to the PronosLab analysis, Burgos have a 55% chance of beating Celta de Vigo II, the draw 25% and an away win 20% (LaLiga 2, Saturday 7 November). Final score: 2-1.

Positive signal for Burgos

Burgos vs Celta de Vigo II prediction

LaLiga 2 · MD13 FT

Prediction

Low

Sealed Fri 6 Nov 08:51 db27376552

Analysis produced with our own statistical model and artificial intelligence from official match data. Every figure is checked automatically against our database before publication, and the prediction is sealed before kick-off. How we work

OutcomeProb.

1 Burgos win 55%

X Draw 25%

2 Celta de Vigo II win 20%

Goals +2,5 ✓ Both teams to score Yes ✓

Recent form

Burgos

3rdPosition

DWWWL

Celta de Vigo II

16thPosition

DLDWL

LL2-3494LaLiga 2 · MD13

FT 2–1

Burgos3rd · Home
Estadio Municipal de El PlantíoSaturday 7 November
Celta de Vigo II16th · Away

PronosLab analystVerified data

Burgos

Celta de Vigo II 12 °C · Rain 13%

Burgos win 55%

Draw 25%

Celta de Vigo II win 20%

Prediction post-mortem

Called it

We expected a home win for Burgos at El Plantío, with more chances to win than Celta de Vigo II, and a match with goals. Celta led 1-0 at half-time, but Burgos turned it around and won 2-1. We got the result, the over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring right. Our confidence was low, and a 2-1 was one of the plausible scenarios.

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PronosLab2-13 pts

Result2-1Burgos

Analyst's view

Verified data

Burgos host Celta de Vigo II at El Plantío on matchday 13 of LaLiga 2, with a 55% chance of a home win. A draw stands at 25% and an away win at 20%. Both teams to score is put at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 57%. The two sides met twice in 2021, finishing 1-0 and 1-1.

What moved the probability

Where every figure in the prediction comes from: the statistical model, the market and what the analyst changed with data. Pick an outcome.

1Burgos win55% XDraw25% 2Celta de Vigo II win20%

Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 56.4%

Analyst adjustmentDriven by model · stats · head-to-head −1.4

Published predictionBurgos win 55.0%

Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 23.4%

Analyst adjustmentDriven by model · stats · head-to-head +1.6

Published predictionDraw 25.0%

Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 20.3%

Analyst adjustmentDriven by model · stats · head-to-head −0.3

Published predictionCelta de Vigo II win 20.0%

Figures are the ones stored at publication. The analysis only moved away from the reference with verifiable data.

Who will score?

With confirmed line-up

Burgos

1
Álex Forés Forward · 4 goals in 783 min · scored
32%
2
Curro Sánchez Forward · 4 goals in 890 min
30%
3
Oier Luengo Defender · 2 goals in 720 min
12%
4
Alberto Dadie Midfielder · 1 goal in 1.014 min
9%
5
Víctor Mollejo Midfielder · 0 goals in 290 min
8%

Celta de Vigo II

1
A. Marin Forward · 8 goals in 950 min
27%
2
A. Kibet Midfielder · 3 goals in 598 min
13%
3
Ángel Arcos Midfielder · 1 goal in 903 min
6%
4
AdriÃ Capdevila Midfielder · 1 goal in 1.057 min
5%
5
Jan Oliveras Midfielder · 0 goals in 247 min
5%

Chance of scoring at least once: their team's expected goals in this match × their season scoring rate (smoothed) × the minutes they're expected to play. Confirmed absentees left out. An estimate, not a guarantee.

More match probabilities

Model · no AI

Who avoids defeat

Burgos avoid defeat80%
No draw75%
Celta de Vigo II avoid defeat45%

Goals

Over 1.5 goals70%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals23%

Expected goals: 2.5

Most likely scorelines

Burgos 1 – 0 Celta de Vigo II13.8%
Burgos 1 – 1 Celta de Vigo II11.7%
Burgos 2 – 0 Celta de Vigo II11.0%
Burgos 2 – 1 Celta de Vigo II9.4%
Burgos 0 – 0 Celta de Vigo II8.6%

Goals and scorelines come from the expected goals behind our 1X2; corners and cards from each team's recent matches with stats (and the referee). These are estimates, not guarantees.

Match timeline

Alvaro·Marin Sesma Goal · assist by Aldrine Kibet
12'0-1
Victor Mollejo Yellow card
27'
Joel Lopez Yellow card
29'
Frank Germain Jonathan Miller On · off Hugo Cuenca
45'
Half-time
Alvaro·Marin Sesma Yellow card
49'
Adrià Capdevila Yellow card
50'
Pablo Galdames On · off Ignasi Vilarrasa Palacios
58'
Brais Martínez On · off Javier Llabrés Exposito
58'
Curro Goal · assist by Alberto Dadie
68'1-1
Ángel Arcos On · off Pablo González Meixús
74'
Jan Oliveras On · off Vladimir Henrique Silva
74'
Alberto Dadie On · off José Gragera
74'
Victor Mollejo On · off Kevin Appin
75'
Saul Del Cerro Garcia On · off Sergio González
77'
Adrià Capdevila On · off Stefan Bajcetic
82'
Seyni Mbaye Ndiaye On · off Noah Rodríguez Guallar
83'
Álex Forés Goal · assist by Ignasi Vilarrasa Palacios
86'2-1
Enrique Ribes Recaj Yellow card
89'
Full-time

Goals, cards, substitutions and VAR decisions from the official match data; updated every minute during the game.

Match stats

Full time

BurgosPronosLab dominanceCelta de Vigo II

74%26%

Our own index: 70% danger created (shots on target, shots inside the box, total shots, corners and xG) and 30% possession.

Burgos expected goals2.84 xGscored 2

Celta de Vigo II expected goals0.49 xGscored 1

59% Possession 41%
19 Shots 8
6 Shots on target 1
17 Shots inside the box 4
10 Corners 1
0 Saves 4
530 Passes 369
13 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 1
1 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Official match data. Updated every minute while live.

Live probability

100%Burgos 0%Draw 0%Celta de Vigo II

14'Celta de Vigo II goal (0-1): their chance of winning went from 20% to 48%.
69'Burgos goal (1-1): their chance of winning went from 6% to 28%.
87'Burgos goal (2-1): their chance of winning went from 13% to 95%.

It starts from our pre-match prediction and is recalculated with the score and the minute, without AI. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Official line-ups

Confirmed

Starting elevens announced by the clubs before kick-off (updated at 13:35).

Burgos4-4-2

13Ander Cantero

22Brais Martínez

18Saúl del Cerro

15Oier Luengo

2Álex

23Alberto Dadie

4P. Galdames

12Unai Vencedor

11Víctor Mollejo

16Curro Sánchez

9Álex Forés

Manager Sergio Francisco

Bench (12)

10K. AppinMID
17Mario CanteroMID
5Marcelo ExpósitoMID
21Fermin GarciaFWD
3Ignasi VilarrasaDEF
6Sergio GonzálezDEF
20José GrageraMID
1Bruno IribarneGK
19Javi LlabrésFWD
36I. MartinezDEF
30M. MonederoGK
31Irian RibasFWD

Celta de Vigo II3-4-2-1

1Coke Carrillo

18Joel López

4S. M. Ndiaye

3K. Ribes

14Jan Oliveras

29M. Sobral

16AdriÃ Capdevila

23G. Miller

11Ángel Arcos

15A. Kibet

9A. Marin

Manager Fredi

Bench (10)

33David Sueiro MuiñosMID
27Noah Rodríguez GuallarMID
28Vladimir Henrique SilvaFWD
6P. MeixusDEF
25M. GonzalezGK
19A. Davila OutereloFWD
17H. CuencaMID
31Raúl Chirveches SánchezDEF
13Caio BaroneGK
22Stefan BajčetićMID

Official match data. The absences and doubts above are updated with the official report.

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What's at stake

2/5

Regular match

One of them is fighting relegation
Top-tier league

Match importance computed from the table, the season simulation, the round and the rivalry.

Rest and travel

Celta de Vigo II come in with 1 more day of rest.

Burgos 26/100

Normal load

Rest: 6 days
Games in 14 days: 3
Travel in 14 days: 862 km
Next game: 6.3 days LaLiga Hypermotion

Celta de Vigo II 20/100

Normal load

Rest: 7 days
Games in 14 days: 2
Travel in 14 days: 2.318 km
Next game: 9.3 days LaLiga Hypermotion

Index from 0 to 100 built from rest days, games in every competition we follow, kilometres between stadiums and whether they play again within 4 days.

Recent form

BurgosCelta de Vigo II

Goals scored per game

1.601.40

Goals conceded per game

1.002.10

League position

3^rd 24 pts 16^th 13 pts

Head to head

Last 3

2Burgos

1Draws

0Celta de Vigo II

7 Nov 2026 Burgos2–1Celta de Vigo II
9 May 2021 Burgos1–0Celta de Vigo II
18 Apr 2021 Celta de Vigo II1–1Burgos

Team news

No significant absences confirmed.

Key facts

How do Burgos and Celta de Vigo II come into the match?

Burgos are 3rd on 24 points and Celta de Vigo II 16th on 13.

How did the last meeting end?

The last meeting, on 07/11/2026, finished Burgos 2-1 Celta de Vigo II.

Other LaLiga 2 fixtures

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