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Simulation · our own model

Who will win LaLiga 2?

We simulate the remaining 322 matches 10.000 times with our model, starting from the real table.

Updated: Wed 11 Nov · See table and fixtures

Title favourites
Castellón crest Castellón
62%
Chasing automatic promotion (top 2)
Granada CF crest Granada CF
18%
Most at risk of relegation
AD Ceuta FC crest AD Ceuta FC
97%
  1. 2 Castellón crest Castellón 27 85 62% 87% 0%
  2. 1 Almeria crest Almeria 29 81 29% 70% 0%
  3. 5 Granada CF crest Granada CF 23 73 4% 18% <1%
  4. 4 Eibar crest Eibar 23 72 3% 14% <1%
  5. 3 Burgos crest Burgos 24 69 1% 7% <1%
  6. 6 Mallorca crest Mallorca 22 66 <1% 3% <1%
  7. 8 Girona crest Girona 21 62 <1% 1% <1%
  8. 7 Sporting Gijon crest Sporting Gijon 22 62 <1% 1% 1%
  9. 11 Cordoba crest Cordoba 19 58 <1% <1% 3%
  10. 13 Sabadell crest Sabadell 18 58 <1% <1% 2%
  11. 10 Las Palmas crest Las Palmas 20 57 <1% <1% 4%
  12. 9 Oviedo crest Oviedo 21 57 0% <1% 5%
  13. 14 Tenerife crest Tenerife 15 56 <1% <1% 6%
  14. 12 Valladolid crest Valladolid 18 55 0% <1% 8%
  15. 16 Celta de Vigo II crest Celta de Vigo II 13 51 0% <1% 20%
  16. 15 Eldense crest Eldense 14 50 0% 0% 24%
  17. 19 FC Andorra crest FC Andorra 11 50 0% <1% 24%
  18. 20 Cadiz crest Cadiz 10 48 0% 0% 31%
  19. 17 Real Sociedad II crest Real Sociedad II 12 47 0% 0% 40%
  20. 18 Leganes crest Leganes 12 43 0% 0% 66%
  21. 21 Albacete crest Albacete 10 42 0% 0% 69%
  22. 22 AD Ceuta FC crest AD Ceuta FC 5 33 0% 0% 97%

“Final pts” is the average points total at the end of the season across all simulations. ▲▼: change in percentage points over 7 days.

Simulator

What if…? Pick results and see how the season changes

Set the result of upcoming matches and we replay the rest of the league 4.000 times with our model. Matches you leave alone follow the model’s probabilities.

Fri 6 Nov

  • Castellón crest Castellón Eibar Eibar crest

Sat 7 Nov

  • Granada CF crest Granada CF Tenerife Tenerife crest

Sun 8 Nov

  • FC Andorra crest FC Andorra Mallorca Mallorca crest

Fri 13 Nov

  • Leganes crest Leganes Burgos Burgos crest

Sat 14 Nov

  • Valladolid crest Valladolid Castellón Castellón crest
  • Real Sociedad II crest Real Sociedad II Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon crest
  • Almeria crest Almeria FC Andorra FC Andorra crest
  • Mallorca crest Mallorca Cordoba Cordoba crest
  • Oviedo crest Oviedo Girona Girona crest

Sun 15 Nov

  • Tenerife crest Tenerife AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC crest
  • Granada CF crest Granada CF Las Palmas Las Palmas crest
  • Eibar crest Eibar Cadiz Cadiz crest
  • Eldense crest Eldense Sabadell Sabadell crest

Mon 16 Nov

  • Albacete crest Albacete Celta de Vigo II Celta de Vigo II crest

Fri 20 Nov

  • FC Andorra crest FC Andorra Leganes Leganes crest

Sat 21 Nov

  • Sabadell crest Sabadell Granada CF Granada CF crest
  • Real Sociedad II crest Real Sociedad II Cadiz Cadiz crest
  • Castellón crest Castellón Eldense Eldense crest
  • Tenerife crest Tenerife Mallorca Mallorca crest

Sun 22 Nov

  • Cordoba crest Cordoba Oviedo Oviedo crest
  • Sporting Gijon crest Sporting Gijon Las Palmas Las Palmas crest
  • Girona crest Girona Eibar Eibar crest
  • Celta de Vigo II crest Celta de Vigo II Valladolid Valladolid crest
  • Burgos crest Burgos Albacete Albacete crest

Mon 23 Nov

  • AD Ceuta FC crest AD Ceuta FC Almeria Almeria crest

Sun 29 Nov

  • Las Palmas crest Las Palmas FC Andorra FC Andorra crest
  • Leganes crest Leganes Sabadell Sabadell crest
  • Eibar crest Eibar Burgos Burgos crest
  • Granada CF crest Granada CF AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC crest
  • Oviedo crest Oviedo Celta de Vigo II Celta de Vigo II crest

Under 1, X and 2 you can see our model’s probability. Tap again to clear a result.

0 results set

Pick one or more results and tap Recalculate.

Where will each team finish?

Share of simulations in which each team ends up in each position. The stronger the colour, the more likely.

12345678910111213141516171819202122 Castellón 62 25 8 3 1 Almeria 29 41 16 8 4 2 Granada CF 4 13 23 20 15 9 6 4 2 1 1 Eibar 3 10 22 21 14 11 7 5 3 2 1 Burgos 1 5 13 16 16 13 10 7 6 4 2 2 1 Mallorca 2 8 11 14 14 12 10 8 6 4 4 3 2 1 Girona 4 6 9 11 12 10 10 9 7 6 5 4 2 2 1 Sporting Gijon 3 5 8 10 12 12 10 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 Cordoba 1 2 4 6 8 9 10 10 10 8 8 7 6 5 3 3 2 Sabadell 2 4 6 8 9 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 4 3 3 1 Las Palmas 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 Oviedo 1 3 4 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 2 1 Tenerife 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 Valladolid 2 3 4 5 6 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 4 3 1 Celta de Vigo II 2 2 3 4 5 6 8 8 10 10 10 10 9 6 4 Eldense 1 2 3 4 4 6 7 8 10 10 11 11 10 8 5 1 FC Andorra 1 2 3 4 5 6 6 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 5 2 Cadiz 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 11 12 10 7 2 Real Sociedad II 1 1 2 2 3 5 6 7 9 10 12 14 13 10 3 Leganes 1 2 3 4 5 7 10 15 19 23 10 Albacete 1 1 2 3 5 7 10 13 19 25 12 AD Ceuta FC 2 3 8 17 69

How the title chances have changed

0%35%70% Fri 6 NovWed 11 Nov

EibarCastellónAlmeriaGranada CF

Frequently asked questions

Who are the favourites to win LaLiga 2?

Castellón finish as champions in 62% of our 10.000 simulations of the rest of the season, ahead of Almeria (29%).

Which teams are most at risk of relegation from LaLiga 2?

According to our simulations: AD Ceuta FC (97 %), Albacete (69 %), Leganes (66 %), Real Sociedad II (40 %).

How it works

Power rankings · Methodology