According to the PronosLab analysis, Sporting Gijon have a 42% chance of beating Valladolid, the draw 29% and an away win 29% (LaLiga 2, Sunday 8 November). Final score: 1-2.
Sporting Gijon vs Valladolid prediction
LaLiga 2 · MD13
FT
Prediction
Lowcc80620f85 Analysis produced with our own statistical model and artificial intelligence from official match data. Every figure is checked automatically against our database before publication, and the prediction is sealed before kick-off. How we work
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Sporting Gijon
ValladolidPrediction post-mortem
Partly rightWe expected a narrow edge for Sporting, who were in better form, and a match with few goals. Valladolid led 2-0 at half-time and won 1-2 at El Molinon. We got right that both teams would score, but missed the result and the goal total: Sporting scored, and Valladolid, who had won little away from home, took the points.
We publish a post-mortem of every prediction, right or wrong. See our full track record →
You vs the AI
See leaderboard →Analyst's view
Verified dataSporting Gijon arrive in better form than Valladolid: they are sixth in the league table with 22 points and have won 4 of their last 5, while Valladolid have won only 1 of their 4 away matches. The edge is narrow, at 42% for a home win, 29% for a draw and 29% for an away win. On goals, there is 44% for over 2.5 and 50% for both teams to score.
What moved the probability
Where every figure in the prediction comes from: the statistical model, the market and what the analyst changed with data. Pick an outcome.
Figures are the ones stored at publication. The analysis only moved away from the reference with verifiable data.
Who will score?
With confirmed line-upSporting Gijon
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1
M. Conde Forward · 0 goals in 102 min26%
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2
J. Otero Forward · 1 goal in 837 min20%
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3
Guille Rosas Defender · 3 goals in 1.153 min13%
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4
Hugo Guillamón Midfielder · 0 goals in 199 min8%
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5
Enol Prendes Midfielder · 0 goals in 337 min8%
Valladolid
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1
Adrian Arnuncio Forward · 5 goals in 622 min19%
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2
T. Abed Forward · 2 goals in 328 min16%
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3
Víctor Fernández Forward · 1 goal in 731 min10%
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4
J. Ponceau Midfielder · 3 goals in 1.041 min8%
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5
Miguel Rubio Defender · 2 goals in 394 min7%
Chance of scoring at least once: their team's expected goals in this match × their season scoring rate (smoothed) × the minutes they're expected to play. Confirmed absentees left out. An estimate, not a guarantee.
More match probabilities
Model · no AIWho avoids defeat
- Sporting Gijon avoid defeat71%
- No draw71%
- Valladolid avoid defeat58%
Goals
- Over 1.5 goals63%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Over 3.5 goals17%
Expected goals: 2.2
Most likely scorelines
- Sporting Gijon 1 – 0 Valladolid14.0%
- Sporting Gijon 1 – 1 Valladolid13.3%
- Sporting Gijon 0 – 0 Valladolid11.6%
- Sporting Gijon 0 – 1 Valladolid11.1%
- Sporting Gijon 2 – 0 Valladolid8.4%
Goals and scorelines come from the expected goals behind our 1X2; corners and cards from each team's recent matches with stats (and the referee). These are estimates, not guarantees.
Match timeline
22-
Julien Ponceau Goal · assist by Iván Alejo4'0-1
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Hugo Guillamón Yellow card8'
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Jorge Sáenz Yellow card18'
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Stanko Jurić Yellow card32'
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Tay Abed Goal · assist by Víctor Fernández39'0-2
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David Torres Yellow card43'
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Iván Alejo Yellow card45'
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Hugo Guillamón On · off Nacho Martín45'
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Enol Prendes Ortiz On · off Diego Matabuena Álvarez45'
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Gaspar Campos Yellow card45+3'
- Half-time
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Miguel Conde Yellow card73'
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Gaspar Campos On · off Nikita Iosifov73'
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Miguel Conde On · off Andres Ferrari73'
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Thiago Ezequiel Ojeda On · off Daniel Pérez Guerrero74'
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Víctor Fernández On · off Luis Rodríguez Chacón74'
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Adrian Arnu On · off Victor Barbera82'
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Iván Alejo On · off Álvaro Pérez Campo82'
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Andres Cuenca On · off Mamadou Loum82'
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Guillermo Rosas Goal · assist by Nikita Iosifov83'1-2
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Tay Abed On · off Pablo Tomeo Félez89'
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Juan Otero Yellow card90+1'
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Juan Otero Red card90+1'
- Full-time
Goals, cards, substitutions and VAR decisions from the official match data; updated every minute during the game.
Match stats
Full timeOur own index: 70% danger created (shots on target, shots inside the box, total shots, corners and xG) and 30% possession.
- 63% Possession 37%
- 21 Shots 15
- 6 Shots on target 6
- 16 Shots inside the box 10
- 9 Corners 6
- 4 Saves 5
- 549 Passes 335
- 15 Fouls 11
- 1 Offsides 0
- 4 Yellow cards 3
- 1 Red cards 0
Official match data. Updated every minute while live.
Live probability
- 5'Valladolid goal (0-1): their chance of winning went from 29% to 59%.
- 41'Valladolid goal (0-2): their chance of winning went from 66% to 90%.
- 84'Sporting Gijon goal (1-2): their chance of winning went from <1% to 1%.
It starts from our pre-match prediction and is recalculated with the score and the minute, without AI. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Official line-ups
ConfirmedStarting elevens announced by the clubs before kick-off (updated at 18:05).
Manager N. Larcamón
Bench (10)
- 9A. FerrariFWD
- 4E. GularteDEF
- 34Diego Matabuena ÁlvarezMID
- 36B. RubioMID
- 5Diego SánchezDEF
- 26Iker MartínezDEF
- 6Nacho MartínMID
- 21M. LoumMID
- 13AranaGK
- 20N. IosifovFWD
Manager Fran Escribá
Bench (12)
- 17Victor BarberáFWD
- 11Yeray CabanzónFWD
- 27Iván GarrielDEF
- 6M. LachuerMID
- 20R. DuivenFWD
- 15Pablo TomeoDEF
- 7Luis ChacónFWD
- 28Dani PérezMID
- 2TrilliDEF
- 5Ramón MartínezDEF
- 13Dani MartínGK
- 10R. ItoMID
Official match data. The absences and doubts above are updated with the official report.
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What's at stake
1/5- Top-tier league
Match importance computed from the table, the season simulation, the round and the rivalry.
Rest and travel
Sporting Gijon come in with 1 more day of rest.
- Rest
- 7 days
- Games in 14 days
- 3
- Travel in 14 days
- 3.595 km
- Next game
- 6 days LaLiga Hypermotion
- Rest
- 6 days
- Games in 14 days
- 2
- Travel in 14 days
- 644 km
- Next game
- 6 days LaLiga Hypermotion
Index from 0 to 100 built from rest days, games in every competition we follow, kilometres between stadiums and whether they play again within 4 days.
Recent form
Head to head
Last 5- 8 Nov 2026 Sporting Gijon1–2Valladolid
- 8 Aug 2026 Sporting Gijon2–4Valladolid
- 22 Feb 2026 Sporting Gijon2–2Valladolid
- 19 Oct 2025 Valladolid2–3Sporting Gijon
- 17 Feb 2024 Sporting Gijon1–1Valladolid
Team news
No significant absences confirmed.
Key facts
How do Sporting Gijon and Valladolid come into the match?
Sporting Gijon are 7th on 22 points and Valladolid 12th on 18.
How did the last meeting end?
The last meeting, on 08/11/2026, finished Sporting Gijon 1-2 Valladolid.
Other LaLiga 2 fixtures
- Castellón – EibarFri 6 Nov
- Burgos – Celta de Vigo IISat 7 Nov
- Cadiz – OviedoSat 7 Nov
- Leganes – AlbaceteSat 7 Nov
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