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According to the PronosLab analysis, Leganes have a 49% chance of beating Albacete, the draw 28% and an away win 23% (LaLiga 2, Saturday 7 November). Final score: 1-3.

Positive signal for Leganes

Leganes vs Albacete prediction

LaLiga 2 · MD13 FT

Prediction

Low
Sealed Fri 6 Nov 10:20 7a435c964b

Analysis produced with our own statistical model and artificial intelligence from official match data. Every figure is checked automatically against our database before publication, and the prediction is sealed before kick-off. How we work

OutcomeProb.
1 Leganes win 49%
X Draw 28%
2 Albacete win 23%
Goals −2,5 ✗ Both teams to score No ✗

Recent form

Leganes crest Leganes
18thPosition
LDLLL
Albacete crest Albacete
21stPosition
WWLLL
LL2-3496LaLiga 2 · MD13
FT 1–3
  1. Leganes18th · Home
  2. Estadio Municipal de ButarqueSaturday 7 November
  3. Albacete21st · Away
PronosLab analystVerified data
Leganes crest Leganes Albacete crest Albacete 15 °C · Rain 0%
Leganes win 49%
Draw 28%
Albacete win 23%

Prediction post-mortem

Got it wrong

We expected a low-scoring match with a slight edge for Leganes at Butarque, though with a narrow margin. Albacete led 2-0 at halftime and won 3-1. We missed on the result, the number of goals and both teams scoring. Home advantage was not enough, and the visitors took their early lead and closed out the match.

We publish a post-mortem of every prediction, right or wrong. See our full track record →

You vs the AI

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YouYou didn't play
PronosLab1-00 pts
Result1-3Albacete

Analyst's view

Verified data

Leganes host Albacete at Butarque with a slight edge: a 49% chance of a home win against 23% for the visitors. Their last meeting finished 0-0, and the draw stands at 28%. On goals, 46% for over 2.5 and 49% that both teams score.

What moved the probability

Where every figure in the prediction comes from: the statistical model, the market and what the analyst changed with data. Pick an outcome.

Model and marketThe analyst’s starting reference 49.5%
Analyst adjustmentDriven by model · head-to-head −0.5
Published predictionLeganes win 49.0%
Model and marketThe analyst’s starting reference 26.8%
Analyst adjustmentDriven by model · head-to-head +1.2
Published predictionDraw 28.0%
Model and marketThe analyst’s starting reference 23.7%
Analyst adjustmentDriven by model · head-to-head −0.7
Published predictionAlbacete win 23.0%

Figures are the ones stored at publication. The analysis only moved away from the reference with verifiable data.

Who will score?

With confirmed line-up

Leganes

  1. 1
    Álex Millán Forward · 2 goals in 309 min
    28%
  2. 2
    Álvaro Morata Forward · 3 goals in 560 min · scored
    27%
  3. 3
    Ismaël Gharbi Midfielder · 2 goals in 907 min
    11%
  4. 4
    Miguel Atienza Midfielder · 1 goal in 839 min
    8%
  5. 5
    Andrés Campos Forward · 0 goals in 32 min · on the bench
    6%

Albacete

  1. 1
    Higinio Marín Forward · 3 goals in 331 min · scored
    19%
  2. 2
    Alex Rubio Forward · 2 goals in 536 min
    14%
  3. 3
    San Bartolomé Midfielder · 2 goals in 514 min
    8%
  4. 4
    Antonio Pacheco Midfielder · 1 goal in 792 min
    5%
  5. 5
    Vallejo Defender · 1 goal in 602 min
    4%

Chance of scoring at least once: their team's expected goals in this match × their season scoring rate (smoothed) × the minutes they're expected to play. Confirmed absentees left out. An estimate, not a guarantee.

More match probabilities

Model · no AI

Who avoids defeat

  • Leganes avoid defeat77%
  • No draw72%
  • Albacete avoid defeat51%

Goals

  • Over 1.5 goals65%
  • Over 2.5 goals46%
  • Over 3.5 goals18%

Expected goals: 2.2

Most likely scorelines

  • Leganes 1 – 0 Albacete15.0%
  • Leganes 1 – 1 Albacete12.7%
  • Leganes 0 – 0 Albacete11.1%
  • Leganes 2 – 0 Albacete10.1%
  • Leganes 0 – 1 Albacete9.4%

Goals and scorelines come from the expected goals behind our 1X2; corners and cards from each team's recent matches with stats (and the referee). These are estimates, not guarantees.

Match timeline

28
  1. Antonio Pacheco Ruiz Goal · assist by Sergio Ortuno Diaz
    20'0-1
  2. Álex Rubio Roldán Yellow card
    34'
  3. Álex Millán VAR · Goal cancelled
    41'
  4. Rubén Peña On · off Álvaro Tejero
    45'
  5. Álex Millán On · off Patrick Soko
    45'
  6. Álex Rubio Roldán On · off Roberto Gonzalez Bayon
    45'
  7. Zico Buurmeester On · off Unax del Cura
    45'
  8. Álex Rubio Roldán Goal
    45+3'0-2
  9. Jesús Vallejo Yellow card
    45+6'
  10. Zico Buurmeester Yellow card
    45+7'
  11. Half-time
  12. Víctor San Bartolomé Yellow card
    47'
  13. Patrick Soko Yellow card
    57'
  14. Higinio Marín Penalty goal
    59'0-3
  15. Víctor San Bartolomé On · off Agustin Medina Delgado
    61'
  16. Higinio Marín On · off Mario Soberon Gutierrez
    61'
  17. Álvaro Tejero Yellow card
    65'
  18. Álvaro Morata Goal · assist by Alejandro San Cristobal Sanchez
    68'1-3
  19. Ismael Gharbi On · off Andres Campos
    68'
  20. Victor Valverde da Silva On · off Dani Bernabéu
    71'
  21. Unax del Cura Yellow card
    80'
  22. Carlos Neva Yellow card
    80'
  23. Jesús Vallejo On · off Pepe Sánchez
    81'
  24. Enric Franquesa On · off Suleiman El Haddadi Mohamed
    81'
  25. Pepe Sánchez Yellow card
    82'
  26. Diego Mariño Yellow card
    84'
  27. Álvaro Morata Yellow card
    85'
  28. Álvaro Morata Penalty missed
    86'
  29. Francisco Montero VAR · Card upgrade confirmed
    90+8'
  30. Full-time

Goals, cards, substitutions and VAR decisions from the official match data; updated every minute during the game.

Match stats

Full time
LeganesPronosLab dominanceAlbacete

Our own index: 70% danger created (shots on target, shots inside the box, total shots, corners and xG) and 30% possession.

Leganes expected goals2.57 xGscored 1
Albacete expected goals2.12 xGscored 3
  • 63% Possession 37%
  • 17 Shots 13
  • 7 Shots on target 4
  • 12 Shots inside the box 6
  • 9 Corners 5
  • 0 Saves 6
  • 442 Passes 263
  • 20 Fouls 14
  • 2 Offsides 3
  • 5 Yellow cards 6
  • 1 Red cards 0

Official match data. Updated every minute while live.

Live probability

0%Leganes <1%Draw >99%Albacete
  • 21'Albacete goal (0-1): their chance of winning went from 23% to 56%.
  • 42'Leganes goal (1-1): their chance of winning went from 13% to 38%.
  • 45'Albacete goal (0-1): their chance of winning went from 21% to 63%.
  • 51'Albacete goal (0-2): their chance of winning went from 64% to 91%.
  • 62'Albacete goal (0-3): their chance of winning went from 93% to 99%.
  • 68'Leganes goal (1-3): their chance of winning went from <1% to <1%.

It starts from our pre-match prediction and is recalculated with the score and the minute, without AI. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Official line-ups

Confirmed

Starting elevens announced by the clubs before kick-off (updated at 18:05).

Leganes4-4-2
13L. Zidane
15Enric Franquesa
2Marvel
3Javi Montero
7Rubén Peña
17Ismaël Gharbi
10Z. Buurmeester
20Miguel Atienza
22Álex Sancris
21Álvaro Morata
9Álex Millán

Manager Luis Carrión

Bench (12)
  • 24A. DiawaraMID
  • 32Suleiman El Haddadi MohamedFWD
  • 1Raúl FernándezGK
  • 11Naim GarcíaFWD
  • 38Álex GonzálezGK
  • 39Jorge MartínezFWD
  • 19P. SokoFWD
  • 40Diego Pérez MorenoDEF
  • 14Dani RodríguezMID
  • 23Álvaro TejeroDEF
  • 16U. del CuraFWD
  • 18Andrés CamposFWD
Albacete4-4-2
13Diego Mariño
21Carlos Neva
24Vallejo
22Lluís López
2Lorenzo Aguado
11Víctor Valverde
18Sergio Ortu
6Antonio Pacheco
14San Bartolomé
12Higinio Marín
19Alex Rubio

Manager Joseba Etxeberria

Bench (12)
  • 23Pepe SánchezDEF
  • 9Mario SoberónFWD
  • 44Antonio DavidMID
  • 4Agus MedinaMID
  • 1Carlos MarínGK
  • 10RóberFWD
  • 39F. GarciaFWD
  • 40Jota DomingoDEF
  • 27D. BernabeuDEF
  • 32A. AlbarracínFWD
  • 28A. VelillaDEF
  • 8Javi VillarMID

Official match data. The absences and doubts above are updated with the official report.

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What's at stake

3/5
Match of interest
  • Direct relegation clash
  • Top-tier league

Match importance computed from the table, the season simulation, the round and the rivalry.

Rest and travel

Albacete come in with 2 more days of rest.

Leganes 22/100
Normal load
Rest
5 days
Games in 14 days
1
Travel in 14 days
336 km
Next game
3 days Copa del Rey
Albacete 6/100
Fresh
Rest
7 days
Games in 14 days
2
Travel in 14 days
220 km
Next game
5 days Copa del Rey

Index from 0 to 100 built from rest days, games in every competition we follow, kilometres between stadiums and whether they play again within 4 days.

Recent form

LeganesAlbacete
Goals scored per game
0.800.80
Goals conceded per game
1.901.90
League position
18th 12 pts 21st 10 pts

Head to head

Last 5
2Leganes
1Draws
2Albacete
  • 7 Nov 2026 Leganes1–3Albacete
  • 17 Jul 2026 Leganes0–0Albacete
  • 11 Apr 2026 Leganes2–1Albacete
  • 4 Jan 2026 Albacete1–3Leganes
  • 4 Dec 2025 Leganes1–2Albacete

Team news

No significant absences confirmed.

Key facts

How do Leganes and Albacete come into the match?

Leganes are 18th on 12 points and Albacete 21st on 10.

How did the last meeting end?

The last meeting, on 07/11/2026, finished Leganes 1-3 Albacete.

Other LaLiga 2 fixtures

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