According to the PronosLab analysis, Sabadell have a 49% chance of beating Real Sociedad II, the draw 27% and an away win 24% (LaLiga 2, Monday 9 November). Final score: 0-0.
Sabadell vs Real Sociedad II prediction
LaLiga 2 · MD13
FT
Prediction
Low51b35129ce Analysis produced with our own statistical model and artificial intelligence from official match data. Every figure is checked automatically against our database before publication, and the prediction is sealed before kick-off. How we work
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Sabadell
Real Sociedad IIPrediction post-mortem
Got it wrongWe expected a slight edge for Sabadell at the Nova Creu Alta, with low confidence and a game with goals at both ends. The match ended 0-0, and it was also 0-0 at half-time. Neither the over 2.5 goals nor both teams scoring came true. We misread the finishing: Sabadell did not score and the visitors did not concede away from home.
We publish a post-mortem of every prediction, right or wrong. See our full track record →
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See leaderboard →Analyst's view
Verified dataSabadell arrive at the Nova Creu Alta in better shape than Real Sociedad II: they have won 3 of their 5 home matches, while Real Sociedad II have lost 4 of their last 5 and conceded 11 goals in 5 away matches. Sabadell have a 49% chance of a home win, though the draw stands at 27% because they failed to score in 3 matches. Both teams to score comes in at 53%.
What moved the probability
Where every figure in the prediction comes from: the statistical model, the market and what the analyst changed with data. Pick an outcome.
Figures are the ones stored at publication. The analysis only moved away from the reference with verifiable data.
Who will score?
With confirmed line-upSabadell
-
1
Gastón Valles Forward · 1 goal in 436 min28%
-
2
Y. Rahmani Forward · 0 goals in 339 min25%
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3
Ángel Baena Midfielder · 3 goals in 712 min21%
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4
Edgar González Midfielder · 1 goal in 818 min11%
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5
N. Obolskiy Forward · 0 goals in 237 min · on the bench7%
Real Sociedad II
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1
Javier Soroeta Forward · 1 goal in 307 min21%
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2
Gorka Gorosabel Midfielder · 3 goals in 856 min13%
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3
Dani Díaz Midfielder · 1 goal in 964 min7%
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4
Alex Garcia Midfielder · 0 goals in 239 min6%
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5
Rupérez Defender · 1 goal in 610 min6%
Chance of scoring at least once: their team's expected goals in this match × their season scoring rate (smoothed) × the minutes they're expected to play. Confirmed absentees left out. An estimate, not a guarantee.
More match probabilities
Model · no AIWho avoids defeat
- Sabadell avoid defeat76%
- No draw73%
- Real Sociedad II avoid defeat51%
Goals
- Over 1.5 goals67%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Over 3.5 goals20%
Expected goals: 2.3
Most likely scorelines
- Sabadell 1 – 0 Real Sociedad II14.0%
- Sabadell 1 – 1 Real Sociedad II12.6%
- Sabadell 0 – 0 Real Sociedad II10.0%
- Sabadell 2 – 0 Real Sociedad II9.8%
- Sabadell 0 – 1 Real Sociedad II9.0%
Goals and scorelines come from the expected goals behind our 1X2; corners and cards from each team's recent matches with stats (and the referee). These are estimates, not guarantees.
Match timeline
18-
Quadri Liameed On · off Arthur Bonaldo12'
-
Gastón Joaquín Valles Velázquez VAR · Penalty cancelled36'
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Luken Beitia Aguirregomezcorta Yellow card39'
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Javier Soroeta Yellow card45+5'
- Half-time
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Yanis Rahmani On · off Javi López-Pinto55'
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Javier Soroeta On · off Gorka Carrera Zarranz65'
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Unax Agote On · off Jon Balda65'
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Alex Marchal García On · off Lander Astiazarán65'
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José Luis Català On · off yussif owusu68'
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Genar Fornés On · off Nikolay Obolskiy68'
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Alex Lebarbier Yellow card77'
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Gorka Gorosabel On · off Arkaitz Mariezkurrena78'
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Ton Ripoll On · off Juan Carlos Lázaro Cervera78'
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Dani Diaz On · off Andrews Adjabeng78'
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Gastón Joaquín Valles Velázquez On · off Alain Ribeiro78'
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Edgar Gonzalez Yellow card82'
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Pere Pons Yellow card88'
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Tomy Carbonell On · off Joan Oleaga90+1'
- Full-time
Goals, cards, substitutions and VAR decisions from the official match data; updated every minute during the game.
Match stats
Full timeOur own index: 70% danger created (shots on target, shots inside the box, total shots, corners and xG) and 30% possession.
- 54% Possession 46%
- 18 Shots 10
- 3 Shots on target 1
- 7 Shots inside the box 8
- 5 Corners 3
- 1 Saves 3
- 342 Passes 349
- 16 Fouls 18
- 1 Offsides 7
- 2 Yellow cards 3
- 0 Red cards 0
Official match data. Updated every minute while live.
Live probability
It starts from our pre-match prediction and is recalculated with the score and the minute, without AI. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Official line-ups
ConfirmedStarting elevens announced by the clubs before kick-off (updated at 20:05).
Manager Ferran Costa
Bench (10)
- 25Marc VidalGK
- 33Joaquim Utgés AlmedaFWD
- 13J. OrtegaGK
- 20UrriMID
- 21Alain RibeiroMID
- 5Arthur BonaldoMID
- 15Kaiser LázaroDEF
- 11Javi LópezMID
- 18Y. OwusuMID
- 9N. ObolskiyFWD
Manager Ion Ansotegi
Bench (5)
- 34Andrews AdjabengFWD
- 17Lander AstiazaránFWD
- 24A. UnaxDEF
- 3Jon BaldaDEF
- 15I. CalderonDEF
Official match data. The absences and doubts above are updated with the official report.
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What's at stake
2/5- One of them is fighting relegation
- Top-tier league
Match importance computed from the table, the season simulation, the round and the rivalry.
Rest and travel
Both sides arrive with a similar load.
- Rest
- 9 days
- Games in 14 days
- 1
- Travel in 14 days
- 880 km
- Next game
- 6 days LaLiga Hypermotion
- Rest
- 9.3 days
- Games in 14 days
- 1
- Travel in 14 days
- 389 km
- Next game
- 5 days LaLiga Hypermotion
Index from 0 to 100 built from rest days, games in every competition we follow, kilometres between stadiums and whether they play again within 4 days.
Recent form
Head to head
Last 4- 17 Feb 2024 Real Sociedad II0–1Sabadell
- 5 Nov 2023 Sabadell1–2Real Sociedad II
- 2 Apr 2023 Real Sociedad II1–1Sabadell
- 5 Nov 2022 Sabadell1–2Real Sociedad II
Team news
No significant absences confirmed.
Key facts
How do Sabadell and Real Sociedad II come into the match?
Sabadell are 13th on 18 points and Real Sociedad II 17th on 12.
How did the last meeting end?
The last meeting, on 17/02/2024, finished Real Sociedad II 0-1 Sabadell.
Other LaLiga 2 fixtures
- Burgos – Celta de Vigo IISat 7 Nov
- Cadiz – OviedoSat 7 Nov
- Leganes – AlbaceteSat 7 Nov
- Cordoba – AD Ceuta FCSat 7 Nov
Sources consulted
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