According to the PronosLab analysis, Girona have a 45% chance of beating Almeria, the draw 27% and an away win 29% (LaLiga 2, Sunday 8 November). Final score: 0-1.
Girona vs Almeria prediction
LaLiga 2 · MD13
FT
Prediction
Low250c673709 Analysis produced with our own statistical model and artificial intelligence from official match data. Every figure is checked automatically against our database before publication, and the prediction is sealed before kick-off. How we work
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Girona
AlmeriaPrediction post-mortem
Got it wrongWe expected a narrow edge for Girona at Montilivi, with over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring as the likely script. Almeria, second with 26 points and unbeaten in their last 10 matches, were in better form. The game was 0-0 at half-time and Almeria won 1-0. We missed all three main calls: Girona did not turn their home scoring into goals, and the match stayed tight with only one goal.
We publish a post-mortem of every prediction, right or wrong. See our full track record →
You vs the AI
See leaderboard →Analyst's view
Verified dataAlmeria arrive better placed in the league table, second on 26 points with 8 wins in their last 10 matches, but Girona play at Montilivi, where they have scored 10 goals in 5 home matches. The advantage for Girona is a slim one: 45% for a home win, 27% for a draw and 29% for Almeria. Over 2.5 goals stands at 51% and both teams to score at 53%.
What moved the probability
Where every figure in the prediction comes from: the statistical model, the market and what the analyst changed with data. Pick an outcome.
Figures are the ones stored at publication. The analysis only moved away from the reference with verifiable data.
Who will score?
With confirmed line-upGirona
-
1
V. Vanat Forward · 5 goals in 633 min28%
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2
Abel Ruiz Forward · 2 goals in 559 min21%
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3
Carles Pérez Midfielder · 3 goals in 762 min14%
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4
Unai Hernández Midfielder · 1 goal in 221 min11%
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5
Holmes Zamorano Defender · 1 goal in 270 min7%
Almeria
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1
Miguel de la Fuente Forward · 8 goals in 1.013 min · scored25%
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2
B. Cipenga Midfielder · 3 goals in 814 min11%
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3
Sergio Arribas Midfielder · 2 goals in 757 min9%
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4
Javi Muñoz Midfielder · 2 goals in 875 min8%
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5
Quim Junyent Midfielder · 1 goal in 733 min6%
Chance of scoring at least once: their team's expected goals in this match × their season scoring rate (smoothed) × the minutes they're expected to play. Confirmed absentees left out. An estimate, not a guarantee.
More match probabilities
Model · no AIWho avoids defeat
- Girona avoid defeat72%
- No draw73%
- Almeria avoid defeat55%
Goals
- Over 1.5 goals70%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Over 3.5 goals23%
Expected goals: 2.5
Most likely scorelines
- Girona 1 – 1 Almeria12.7%
- Girona 1 – 0 Almeria12.1%
- Girona 0 – 1 Almeria9.1%
- Girona 2 – 1 Almeria8.9%
- Girona 0 – 0 Almeria8.6%
Goals and scorelines come from the expected goals behind our 1X2; corners and cards from each team's recent matches with stats (and the referee). These are estimates, not guarantees.
Match timeline
19-
Álex Moreno Yellow card30'
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Fran Beltran Yellow card38'
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Izan González Yellow card38'
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Stefan Džodić Yellow card38'
- Half-time
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Marcos Luna Yellow card54'
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Abel Ruíz On · off Yaser Asprilla63'
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Miguel De La Fuente Goal67'0-1
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Mateu Morey Yellow card71'
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Fran Beltran On · off Iván Morante72'
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Unai Hernández On · off Christian Stuani72'
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Javier Muñoz Jiménez On · off Gui Guedes74'
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Brian Cipenga On · off Léo Baptistão79'
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Miguel De La Fuente On · off Álex Sola79'
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Vladyslav Vanat On · off Portu83'
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Álex Moreno On · off Oleksandr Pyshchur84'
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Marcos Luna On · off Mikel Vesga86'
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Quim junyent On · off Álex Muñoz86'
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Álex Muñoz Yellow card89'
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Oleksandr Pyshchur Yellow card90+5'
- Full-time
Goals, cards, substitutions and VAR decisions from the official match data; updated every minute during the game.
Match stats
Full timeOur own index: 70% danger created (shots on target, shots inside the box, total shots, corners and xG) and 30% possession.
- 46% Possession 54%
- 16 Shots 12
- 3 Shots on target 3
- 11 Shots inside the box 6
- 7 Corners 2
- 2 Saves 3
- 385 Passes 495
- 16 Fouls 14
- 5 Offsides 2
- 5 Yellow cards 3
- 0 Red cards 0
Official match data. Updated every minute while live.
Live probability
- 69'Almeria goal (0-1): their chance of winning went from 19% to 76%.
It starts from our pre-match prediction and is recalculated with the score and the minute, without AI. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Official line-ups
ConfirmedStarting elevens announced by the clubs before kick-off (updated at 15:50).
Manager Quique Álvarez
Bench (11)
- 22Y. AsprillaMID
- 29L. KouroumaMID
- 25V. KrapyvtsovGK
- 33M. FurtadoDEF
- 14Iván MoranteMID
- 2A. MuminDEF
- 10PortuFWD
- 1Sergi PuigGK
- 15Oleksandr PishchurFWD
- 7C. StuaniFWD
- 6D. van de BeekMID
Manager Xavier García Pimienta
Bench (11)
- 21ChumiDEF
- 12Léo BaptistãoFWD
- 23Adri EmbarbaFWD
- 9ThalysFWD
- 13Fernando MartínezGK
- 7Jon MorcilloFWD
- 3Álex MuñozDEF
- 20Álex SolaFWD
- 6Mikel VesgaMID
- 31Á. YaakobishviliGK
- 8GuiMID
Official match data. The absences and doubts above are updated with the official report.
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What's at stake
2/5- One of them is in the title race
- Top-tier league
- One of the league's strongest sides is playing
Match importance computed from the table, the season simulation, the round and the rivalry.
Rest and travel
Both sides arrive with a similar load.
- Rest
- 8 days
- Games in 14 days
- 2
- Travel in 14 days
- 1.468 km
- Next game
- 6 days LaLiga Hypermotion
- Rest
- 8 days
- Games in 14 days
- 2
- Travel in 14 days
- 2.958 km
- Next game
- 6 days LaLiga Hypermotion
Index from 0 to 100 built from rest days, games in every competition we follow, kilometres between stadiums and whether they play again within 4 days.
Recent form
Head to head
Last 5- 8 Nov 2026 Girona0–1Almeria
- 14 Jan 2024 Almeria0–0Girona
- 22 Oct 2023 Girona5–2Almeria
- 17 Feb 2023 Girona6–2Almeria
- 20 Oct 2022 Almeria3–2Girona
Team news
No significant absences confirmed.
Key facts
How do Girona and Almeria come into the match?
Girona are 8th on 21 points and Almeria 1st on 29.
How did the last meeting end?
The last meeting, on 08/11/2026, finished Girona 0-1 Almeria.
Other LaLiga 2 fixtures
- Castellón – EibarFri 6 Nov
- Burgos – Celta de Vigo IISat 7 Nov
- Cadiz – OviedoSat 7 Nov
- Leganes – AlbaceteSat 7 Nov
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