According to the PronosLab analysis, Cadiz have a 43% chance of beating Oviedo, the draw 27% and an away win 30% (LaLiga 2, Saturday 7 November). Final score: 1-2.
Cadiz vs Oviedo prediction
LaLiga 2 · MD13
FT
Prediction
Lowce623a4ea9 Analysis produced with our own statistical model and artificial intelligence from official match data. Every figure is checked automatically against our database before publication, and the prediction is sealed before kick-off. How we work
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Cadiz
OviedoPrediction post-mortem
Partly rightWe expected a slight home edge for Cádiz, though with little distance to Oviedo, and a game with goals at both ends. Oviedo led 2-0 at halftime and won 2-1 at the final whistle. We got right that both teams would score and that the match would pass 2.5 goals, but the result was wrong: we did not see Oviedo's dominant first half coming.
We publish a post-mortem of every prediction, right or wrong. See our full track record →
You vs the AI
See leaderboard →Analyst's view
Verified dataCadiz go into matchday 13 of LaLiga 2 with a slight edge as they host Oviedo at the JP Financial Estadio: a 43% chance of a home win against 30% for the visitors. The draw stands at 27%. Goals look possible at both ends, with 59% for both teams to score and 57% for over 2.5 goals, and 1-1 is the most probable scoreline.
What moved the probability
Where every figure in the prediction comes from: the statistical model, the market and what the analyst changed with data. Pick an outcome.
Figures are the ones stored at publication. The analysis only moved away from the reference with verifiable data.
Who will score?
With confirmed line-upCadiz
-
1
Antonio Cordero Midfielder · 5 goals in 932 min23%
-
2
Álvaro García Forward · 0 goals in 476 min19%
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3
A. Moueffek Midfielder · 1 goal in 202 min14%
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4
Ibon Sánchez Midfielder · 2 goals in 847 min13%
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5
Borja Vazquez Midfielder · 1 goal in 502 min11%
Oviedo
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1
Carlos Domínguez Defender · 5 goals in 900 min14%
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2
A. Ișfan Forward · 0 goals in 358 min14%
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3
Estanis Midfielder · 2 goals in 225 min13%
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4
I. Chaira Midfielder · 1 goal in 94 min10%
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5
Mikel Goti Midfielder · 2 goals in 664 min10%
Chance of scoring at least once: their team's expected goals in this match × their season scoring rate (smoothed) × the minutes they're expected to play. Confirmed absentees left out. An estimate, not a guarantee.
More match probabilities
Model · no AIWho avoids defeat
- Cadiz avoid defeat70%
- No draw73%
- Oviedo avoid defeat57%
Goals
- Over 1.5 goals70%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Over 3.5 goals23%
Expected goals: 2.5
Most likely scorelines
- Cadiz 1 – 1 Oviedo12.8%
- Cadiz 1 – 0 Oviedo11.6%
- Cadiz 0 – 1 Oviedo9.5%
- Cadiz 2 – 1 Oviedo8.6%
- Cadiz 0 – 0 Oviedo8.6%
Goals and scorelines come from the expected goals behind our 1X2; corners and cards from each team's recent matches with stats (and the referee). These are estimates, not guarantees.
Match timeline
22-
Estanis Pedrola Goal · assist by Enzo Pérez Miranda22'0-1
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Dani Calvo On · off David Costas29'
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Ilyas Chaira Goal38'0-2
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Youness Lachhab Didi Yellow card44'
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Borja Vazquez On · off Cristian Gutiérrez45'
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Bojan Kovacevic On · off Urko Iruretagoiena Lertxundi45'
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Aimen Moueffek On · off Javier Ontiveros45'
- Half-time
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Ilyas Chaira Yellow card54'
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Estanis Pedrola On · off Jacobo González61'
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Mikel Goti Lopez On · off Alberto Reina61'
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Alexandru Mihai Isfan On · off Pablo Saenz61'
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Javier Castro On · off Noah Obioma Ukwuije63'
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Cristian Gutiérrez Yellow card66'
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Ilyas Chaira On · off Daniel Villahermosa67'
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David Jimenez Yellow card71'
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Giorgi Gocholeishvili On · off Beñat de Jesús Domingo72'
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Beñat de Jesús Domingo Yellow card76'
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Enzo Pérez Miranda Yellow card78'
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Urko Iruretagoiena Lertxundi Goal · assist by Antonio Cordero83'1-2
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Dilan Zárate Yellow card84'
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Urko Iruretagoiena Lertxundi Yellow card87'
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David Costas Yellow card90+3'
- Full-time
Goals, cards, substitutions and VAR decisions from the official match data; updated every minute during the game.
Match stats
Full timeOur own index: 70% danger created (shots on target, shots inside the box, total shots, corners and xG) and 30% possession.
- 47% Possession 53%
- 15 Shots 11
- 4 Shots on target 4
- 12 Shots inside the box 6
- 8 Corners 4
- 2 Saves 3
- 375 Passes 437
- 9 Fouls 16
- 2 Offsides 1
- 4 Yellow cards 5
- 0 Red cards 0
Official match data. Updated every minute while live.
Live probability
- 25'Oviedo goal (0-1): their chance of winning went from 29% to 61%.
- 40'Oviedo goal (0-2): their chance of winning went from 64% to 89%.
- 84'Cadiz goal (1-2): their chance of winning went from <1% to 1%.
It starts from our pre-match prediction and is recalculated with the score and the minute, without AI. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Official line-ups
ConfirmedStarting elevens announced by the clubs before kick-off (updated at 15:50).
Manager Borja Jiménez
Bench (12)
- 27J. Diaz PeregrinaDEF
- 5M. DouéMID
- 6Manu FernándezDEF
- 1David GilGK
- 22Cristian GutiérrezDEF
- 19Urko IzetaFWD
- 10Javi OntiverosMID
- 23Damián RodríguezMID
- 15K. ToibibouDEF
- 8E. AghamaFWD
- 31N. UkwuijeDEF
- 2Beñat de JesúsDEF
Manager Julián Calero
Bench (12)
- 1Miguel NarváezGK
- 6Dani VillahermosaMID
- 22Nacho VidalDEF
- 20Pablo SáenzFWD
- 10Alberto ReinaMID
- 25José Luis MoralesFWD
- 28D. MenendezMID
- 11Jacobo GonzálezFWD
- 18V. MingoFWD
- 4David CostasDEF
- 16Aritz AldasoroMID
- 3Juan CruzDEF
Official match data. The absences and doubts above are updated with the official report.
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What's at stake
2/5- One of them is fighting relegation
- Top-tier league
Match importance computed from the table, the season simulation, the round and the rivalry.
Rest and travel
Both sides arrive with a similar load.
- Rest
- 5 days
- Games in 14 days
- 3
- Travel in 14 days
- 2.832 km
- Next game
- 8 days LaLiga Hypermotion
- Rest
- 5 days
- Games in 14 days
- 3
- Travel in 14 days
- 2.978 km
- Next game
- 7 days LaLiga Hypermotion
Index from 0 to 100 built from rest days, games in every competition we follow, kilometres between stadiums and whether they play again within 4 days.
Recent form
Head to head
Last 5- 7 Nov 2026 Cadiz1–2Oviedo
- 1 Jun 2025 Oviedo2–1Cadiz
- 26 Oct 2024 Cadiz2–0Oviedo
- 4 Jul 2020 Cadiz2–0Oviedo
- 15 Dec 2019 Oviedo0–2Cadiz
Team news
No significant absences confirmed.
Key facts
How do Cadiz and Oviedo come into the match?
Cadiz are 20th on 10 points and Oviedo 9th on 21.
How did the last meeting end?
The last meeting, on 07/11/2026, finished Cadiz 1-2 Oviedo.
Other LaLiga 2 fixtures
- Castellón – EibarFri 6 Nov
- Burgos – Celta de Vigo IISat 7 Nov
- Leganes – AlbaceteSat 7 Nov
- Cordoba – AD Ceuta FCSat 7 Nov
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