Simulation · our own model

Who will win Ligue 2?

Q: Who are the favourites to win Ligue 2?

Saint Etienne finish as champions in 49% of our 10.000 simulations of the rest of the season, ahead of Nancy (27%).

Q: Which teams are most at risk of relegation from Ligue 2?

According to our simulations: Laval (48 %), Grenoble (34 %), Sochaux (32 %), Nantes (22 %).

We simulate the remaining 198 matches 10.000 times with our model, starting from the real table.

Updated: Wed 11 Nov · See table and fixtures

Title favourites

Saint Etienne

49%

Chasing automatic promotion (top 2)

Montpellier

31%

Most at risk of relegation

Laval

48%

1 Saint Etienne 28 65 49% 74% 0%
2 Nancy 25 62 27% 56% 0%
3 Montpellier 24 58 11% 31% 0%
4 Reims 21 57 9% 25% 0%
5 PAU 20 52 2% 7% <1%
6 Dijon 18 51 1% 5% <1%
12 Boulogne 13 46 <1% 1% 2%
8 RED Star FC 93 17 46 <1% 1% 3%
10 Dunkerque 15 46 <1% 1% 3%
9 Annecy 16 45 <1% <1% 5%
11 Guingamp 14 44 <1% 1% 4%
7 Metz 17 41 <1% <1% 13%
13 Rodez 13 40 <1% <1% 16%
15 Clermont Foot 11 39 <1% <1% 19%
14 Nantes 12 38 0% <1% 22%
16 Sochaux 11 37 0% 0% 32%
17 Grenoble 11 37 <1% <1% 34%
18 Laval 9 35 0% 0% 48%

“Final pts” is the average points total at the end of the season across all simulations. ▲▼: change in percentage points over 7 days.

Simulator

What if…? Pick results and see how the season changes

Set the result of upcoming matches and we replay the rest of the league 4.000 times with our model. Matches you leave alone follow the model’s probabilities.

Fri 20 Nov

Nantes Grenoble
Guingamp Rodez
Reims Saint Etienne
Nancy Dijon
RED Star FC 93 PAU
Metz Boulogne
Sochaux Dunkerque
Laval Montpellier
Annecy Clermont Foot

Fri 4 Dec

Montpellier Nantes
Dijon Sochaux
Clermont Foot Metz
Grenoble Guingamp
Saint Etienne Nancy
Boulogne PAU
Rodez Reims
Dunkerque RED Star FC 93
Annecy Laval

Fri 11 Dec

Nantes Annecy
Guingamp Dijon
Nancy Clermont Foot
RED Star FC 93 Grenoble
Metz Reims
Sochaux Montpellier
Laval Dunkerque
PAU Saint Etienne
Boulogne Rodez

Sat 2 Jan

Montpellier Guingamp
Dijon Nantes
Reims Laval

Under 1, X and 2 you can see our model’s probability. Tap again to clear a result.

0 results set

Pick one or more results and tap Recalculate.

Where will each team finish?

Share of simulations in which each team ends up in each position. The stronger the colour, the more likely.

123456789101112131415161718 Saint Etienne 49 24 13 7 3 2 Nancy 27 29 19 11 6 4 2 Montpellier 11 19 22 18 12 7 4 2 1 Reims 9 16 20 19 14 9 5 4 2 1 PAU 2 5 10 15 17 14 11 8 6 4 3 2 2 Dijon 1 3 7 11 14 14 12 9 8 6 4 3 2 2 Boulogne 2 4 7 9 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 4 2 1 RED Star FC 93 2 3 6 8 10 10 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 Dunkerque 2 4 7 9 10 11 11 9 9 8 6 5 3 3 2 Annecy 1 3 4 7 9 10 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 4 3 2 Guingamp 1 3 5 7 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 6 4 2 1 Metz 1 3 4 6 6 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 Rodez 1 2 3 4 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 10 9 7 Clermont Foot 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 9 11 11 10 11 8 Nantes 1 2 3 5 6 7 9 10 11 11 12 12 10 Sochaux 1 2 3 4 5 7 9 11 12 14 16 16 Grenoble 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 9 12 14 16 18 Laval 1 2 3 3 5 6 8 10 14 18 30

How the title chances have changed

MontpellierReimsNancySaint Etienne

Frequently asked questions

Who are the favourites to win Ligue 2?

Saint Etienne finish as champions in 49% of our 10.000 simulations of the rest of the season, ahead of Nancy (27%).

Which teams are most at risk of relegation from Ligue 2?

According to our simulations: Laval (48 %), Grenoble (34 %), Sochaux (32 %), Nantes (22 %).

How it works

We start from the real table and play the remaining matches one by one, using our model's probabilities (Poisson and Elo).
We repeat the season 10,000 times and count how often each team finishes in each position. It updates twice a day.
Ties are broken by goal difference as an approximation; some leagues use head-to-head, so it may differ when teams are level on points.

Power rankings · Methodology