Simulation · Ligue 2

What are Metz's chances this season?

Q: Can Metz win Ligue 2?

Metz win Ligue 2 in <1% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They rank 12 of 18 for title chances.

Q: Will Metz be promoted this season?

Metz go up automatically (top 2 in Ligue 2) in <1% of our 10,000 simulations.

Q: How are these probabilities calculated?

We start from the real table and play the 198 remaining league matches 10,000 times with our statistical model (Poisson and Elo). They are estimates, not guarantees, and are recalculated twice a day.

Metz are relegated in 13% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the Ligue 2 season.

Updated: Wed 11 Nov

Title<1%

Automatic promotion (top 2)<1%

Relegation13%

Where they are and where they could finish

Current position: 7th
Points (12 matches): 17
Expected final points: 41
Most likely final position: 13th (10 %)
Range in 8 out of 10 simulations: 8th to 17th

Metz – Boulogne · Fri 20 Nov →

How their chances have changed

Last 60 days. Each point is a fresh calculation using real results.

TitleAutomatic promotion (top 2)Relegation

Where will Metz finish?

Share of simulations in which they end in each position.

1
2
3
4
15
36
47
68
69
810
911
1012
1013
1014
1015
916
717
518

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You can use these numbers on your site, newspaper or social channels if you credit the source (CC BY 4.0).

Metz are relegated in 13% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the Ligue 2 season. Source: PronosLab, Wed 11 Nov. https://pronoslab.com/en/season-chances/metz

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Frequently asked questions

Can Metz win Ligue 2?

Metz win Ligue 2 in <1% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They rank 12 of 18 for title chances.

Will Metz be promoted this season?

Metz go up automatically (top 2 in Ligue 2) in <1% of our 10,000 simulations.

Will Metz be relegated?

Metz are relegated in 13% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the Ligue 2 season. They rank 7 of 18 for relegation risk.

How are these probabilities calculated?

We start from the real table and play the 198 remaining league matches 10,000 times with our statistical model (Poisson and Elo). They are estimates, not guarantees, and are recalculated twice a day.

How it works

We start from the real table and play the remaining matches one by one, using our model's probabilities (Poisson and Elo).
We repeat the season 10,000 times and count how often each team finishes in each position. It updates twice a day.
Ties are broken by goal difference as an approximation; some leagues use head-to-head, so it may differ when teams are level on points.

Metz team page · All Ligue 2 probabilities · Methodology

Probabilities estimated with our own model. They do not guarantee any result.