Simulation · Ligue 2

What are PAU's chances this season?

Q: Can PAU win Ligue 2?

PAU win Ligue 2 in 2% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They rank 5 of 18 for title chances.

Q: Will PAU be relegated?

PAU are relegated in <1% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the Ligue 2 season. They rank 14 of 18 for relegation risk.

Q: How are these probabilities calculated?

We start from the real table and play the 198 remaining league matches 10,000 times with our statistical model (Poisson and Elo). They are estimates, not guarantees, and are recalculated twice a day.

PAU go up automatically (top 2 in Ligue 2) in 7% of our 10,000 simulations.

Updated: Wed 11 Nov

Title2%

Automatic promotion (top 2)7%

Relegation<1%

Where they are and where they could finish

Current position: 5th
Points (12 matches): 20
Expected final points: 52
Most likely final position: 5th (17 %)
Range in 8 out of 10 simulations: 3rd to 10th

RED Star FC 93 – PAU · Fri 20 Nov →

How their chances have changed

Last 60 days. Each point is a fresh calculation using real results.

TitleAutomatic promotion (top 2)Relegation

Where will PAU finish?

Share of simulations in which they end in each position.

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PAU go up automatically (top 2 in Ligue 2) in 7% of our 10,000 simulations. Source: PronosLab, Wed 11 Nov. https://pronoslab.com/en/season-chances/pau

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Frequently asked questions

Can PAU win Ligue 2?

PAU win Ligue 2 in 2% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They rank 5 of 18 for title chances.

Will PAU be promoted this season?

PAU go up automatically (top 2 in Ligue 2) in 7% of our 10,000 simulations.

Will PAU be relegated?

PAU are relegated in <1% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the Ligue 2 season. They rank 14 of 18 for relegation risk.

How are these probabilities calculated?

We start from the real table and play the 198 remaining league matches 10,000 times with our statistical model (Poisson and Elo). They are estimates, not guarantees, and are recalculated twice a day.

How it works

We start from the real table and play the remaining matches one by one, using our model's probabilities (Poisson and Elo).
We repeat the season 10,000 times and count how often each team finishes in each position. It updates twice a day.
Ties are broken by goal difference as an approximation; some leagues use head-to-head, so it may differ when teams are level on points.

PAU team page · All Ligue 2 probabilities · Methodology

Probabilities estimated with our own model. They do not guarantee any result.