Simulation · Ligue 2

What are Boulogne's chances this season?

Q: Can Boulogne win Ligue 2?

Boulogne win Ligue 2 in <1% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They rank 7 of 18 for title chances.

Q: Will Boulogne be relegated?

Boulogne are relegated in 2% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the Ligue 2 season. They rank 12 of 18 for relegation risk.

Q: How are these probabilities calculated?

We start from the real table and play the 198 remaining league matches 10,000 times with our statistical model (Poisson and Elo). They are estimates, not guarantees, and are recalculated twice a day.

Boulogne go up automatically (top 2 in Ligue 2) in 1% of our 10,000 simulations.

Updated: Wed 11 Nov

Title<1%

Automatic promotion (top 2)1%

Relegation2%

Where they are and where they could finish

Current position: 12th
Points (12 matches): 13
Expected final points: 46
Most likely final position: 8th (11 %)
Range in 8 out of 10 simulations: 5th to 14th

Metz – Boulogne · Fri 20 Nov →

How their chances have changed

Last 60 days. Each point is a fresh calculation using real results.

TitleAutomatic promotion (top 2)Relegation

Where will Boulogne finish?

Share of simulations in which they end in each position.

1
2
23
44
75
96
117
118
119
1010
911
712
613
514
415
216
117
18

Quote or embed this figure

You can use these numbers on your site, newspaper or social channels if you credit the source (CC BY 4.0).

Boulogne go up automatically (top 2 in Ligue 2) in 1% of our 10,000 simulations. Source: PronosLab, Wed 11 Nov. https://pronoslab.com/en/season-chances/boulogne

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Frequently asked questions

Can Boulogne win Ligue 2?

Boulogne win Ligue 2 in <1% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They rank 7 of 18 for title chances.

Will Boulogne be promoted this season?

Boulogne go up automatically (top 2 in Ligue 2) in 1% of our 10,000 simulations.

Will Boulogne be relegated?

Boulogne are relegated in 2% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the Ligue 2 season. They rank 12 of 18 for relegation risk.

How are these probabilities calculated?

We start from the real table and play the 198 remaining league matches 10,000 times with our statistical model (Poisson and Elo). They are estimates, not guarantees, and are recalculated twice a day.

How it works

We start from the real table and play the remaining matches one by one, using our model's probabilities (Poisson and Elo).
We repeat the season 10,000 times and count how often each team finishes in each position. It updates twice a day.
Ties are broken by goal difference as an approximation; some leagues use head-to-head, so it may differ when teams are level on points.

Boulogne team page · All Ligue 2 probabilities · Methodology

Probabilities estimated with our own model. They do not guarantee any result.