PronosLab
EN
Español English Français Italiano Deutsch
Log in

Simulation · our own model

Who will win 2. Bundesliga?

We simulate the remaining 207 matches 10.000 times with our model, starting from the real table.

Updated: Wed 11 Nov · See table and fixtures

Title favourites
Hertha BSC crest Hertha BSC
91%
Chasing automatic promotion (top 2)
1. FC Magdeburg crest 1. FC Magdeburg
26%
Most at risk of relegation
FC St. Pauli crest FC St. Pauli
35%
  1. 1 Hertha BSC crest Hertha BSC 31 75 91% 98% 0%
  2. 2 1. FC Nürnberg crest 1. FC Nürnberg 24 62 6% 48% 0%
  3. 4 1. FC Magdeburg crest 1. FC Magdeburg 20 58 2% 26% <1%
  4. 3 1. FC Kaiserslautern crest 1. FC Kaiserslautern 21 57 1% 17% <1%
  5. 5 VfL Wolfsburg crest VfL Wolfsburg 19 52 <1% 5% <1%
  6. 6 Arminia Bielefeld crest Arminia Bielefeld 17 51 <1% 4% <1%
  7. 15 Dynamo Dresden crest Dynamo Dresden 11 46 0% 1% 2%
  8. 8 VfL Bochum crest VfL Bochum 14 45 <1% <1% 3%
  9. 11 Hannover 96 crest Hannover 96 12 43 <1% <1% 6%
  10. 7 1. FC Heidenheim crest 1. FC Heidenheim 16 42 0% <1% 8%
  11. 13 Eintracht Braunschweig crest Eintracht Braunschweig 11 41 0% <1% 11%
  12. 12 Energie Cottbus crest Energie Cottbus 11 41 0% <1% 13%
  13. 10 SpVgg Greuther Fürth crest SpVgg Greuther Fürth 12 40 0% <1% 14%
  14. 14 VfL Osnabrück crest VfL Osnabrück 11 39 0% <1% 18%
  15. 18 Holstein Kiel crest Holstein Kiel 8 37 0% <1% 25%
  16. 16 Karlsruher SC crest Karlsruher SC 11 37 0% 0% 31%
  17. 17 SV Darmstadt 98 crest SV Darmstadt 98 9 37 0% 0% 33%
  18. 9 FC St. Pauli crest FC St. Pauli 12 36 0% 0% 35%

“Final pts” is the average points total at the end of the season across all simulations. ▲▼: change in percentage points over 7 days.

Simulator

What if…? Pick results and see how the season changes

Set the result of upcoming matches and we replay the rest of the league 4.000 times with our model. Matches you leave alone follow the model’s probabilities.

Fri 20 Nov

  • SV Darmstadt 98 crest SV Darmstadt 98 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim crest
  • Arminia Bielefeld crest Arminia Bielefeld 1. FC Magdeburg 1. FC Magdeburg crest

Sat 21 Nov

  • VfL Wolfsburg crest VfL Wolfsburg Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel crest
  • Hannover 96 crest Hannover 96 SpVgg Greuther Fürth SpVgg Greuther Fürth crest
  • 1. FC Nürnberg crest 1. FC Nürnberg Eintracht Braunschweig Eintracht Braunschweig crest
  • FC St. Pauli crest FC St. Pauli VfL Bochum VfL Bochum crest

Sun 22 Nov

  • 1. FC Kaiserslautern crest 1. FC Kaiserslautern Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden crest
  • Karlsruher SC crest Karlsruher SC VfL Osnabrück VfL Osnabrück crest
  • Energie Cottbus crest Energie Cottbus Hertha BSC Hertha BSC crest

Fri 27 Nov

  • VfL Bochum crest VfL Bochum SV Darmstadt 98 SV Darmstadt 98 crest
  • 1. FC Heidenheim crest 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Nürnberg 1. FC Nürnberg crest

Sat 28 Nov

  • Hertha BSC crest Hertha BSC Karlsruher SC Karlsruher SC crest
  • Dynamo Dresden crest Dynamo Dresden FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli crest
  • Holstein Kiel crest Holstein Kiel 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1. FC Kaiserslautern crest
  • VfL Osnabrück crest VfL Osnabrück Hannover 96 Hannover 96 crest

Sun 29 Nov

  • SpVgg Greuther Fürth crest SpVgg Greuther Fürth Arminia Bielefeld Arminia Bielefeld crest
  • 1. FC Magdeburg crest 1. FC Magdeburg Energie Cottbus Energie Cottbus crest
  • Eintracht Braunschweig crest Eintracht Braunschweig VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg crest

Fri 4 Dec

  • Arminia Bielefeld crest Arminia Bielefeld Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden crest
  • Energie Cottbus crest Energie Cottbus VfL Osnabrück VfL Osnabrück crest

Sat 5 Dec

  • 1. FC Nürnberg crest 1. FC Nürnberg VfL Bochum VfL Bochum crest
  • 1. FC Kaiserslautern crest 1. FC Kaiserslautern SpVgg Greuther Fürth SpVgg Greuther Fürth crest
  • Karlsruher SC crest Karlsruher SC Holstein Kiel Holstein Kiel crest
  • Hannover 96 crest Hannover 96 Hertha BSC Hertha BSC crest

Sun 6 Dec

  • VfL Wolfsburg crest VfL Wolfsburg 1. FC Magdeburg 1. FC Magdeburg crest
  • SV Darmstadt 98 crest SV Darmstadt 98 Eintracht Braunschweig Eintracht Braunschweig crest
  • FC St. Pauli crest FC St. Pauli 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim crest

Fri 11 Dec

  • 1. FC Magdeburg crest 1. FC Magdeburg 1. FC Nürnberg 1. FC Nürnberg crest
  • Arminia Bielefeld crest Arminia Bielefeld 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1. FC Kaiserslautern crest

Sat 12 Dec

  • Hertha BSC crest Hertha BSC SV Darmstadt 98 SV Darmstadt 98 crest

Under 1, X and 2 you can see our model’s probability. Tap again to clear a result.

0 results set

Pick one or more results and tap Recalculate.

Where will each team finish?

Share of simulations in which each team ends up in each position. The stronger the colour, the more likely.

123456789101112131415161718 Hertha BSC 91 8 1 1. FC Nürnberg 6 42 25 14 7 3 2 1. FC Magdeburg 2 24 26 21 13 7 4 2 1 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1 16 24 22 16 9 5 3 1 1 VfL Wolfsburg 5 9 15 17 16 12 8 6 4 3 2 1 Arminia Bielefeld 4 9 13 17 17 12 9 6 4 3 2 1 1 Dynamo Dresden 2 5 8 11 12 12 11 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 VfL Bochum 1 3 6 9 11 11 11 10 8 8 6 5 4 3 2 1 Hannover 96 2 5 7 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 4 2 1. FC Heidenheim 1 3 5 7 8 9 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 Eintracht Braunschweig 2 4 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 Energie Cottbus 2 3 5 7 8 8 10 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 3 4 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 VfL Osnabrück 1 2 4 5 7 7 8 10 9 9 10 9 9 9 Holstein Kiel 2 3 4 4 6 7 8 9 10 10 12 12 12 Karlsruher SC 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 13 14 17 SV Darmstadt 98 2 3 4 5 5 7 8 10 11 13 15 18 FC St. Pauli 1 2 3 4 6 6 8 10 10 13 16 19

How the title chances have changed

0%50%100% Mon 9 NovWed 11 Nov

Hertha BSC1. FC Nürnberg1. FC Magdeburg1. FC Kaiserslautern

Frequently asked questions

Who are the favourites to win 2. Bundesliga?

Hertha BSC finish as champions in 91% of our 10.000 simulations of the rest of the season, ahead of 1. FC Nürnberg (6%).

Which teams are most at risk of relegation from 2. Bundesliga?

According to our simulations: FC St. Pauli (35 %), SV Darmstadt 98 (33 %), Karlsruher SC (31 %), Holstein Kiel (25 %).

How it works

Power rankings · Methodology