Simulation · 2. Bundesliga

What are Arminia Bielefeld's chances this season?

Q: Can Arminia Bielefeld win 2. Bundesliga?

Arminia Bielefeld win 2. Bundesliga in <1% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They rank 6 of 18 for title chances.

Q: Will Arminia Bielefeld be relegated?

Arminia Bielefeld are relegated in <1% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2. Bundesliga season. They rank 13 of 18 for relegation risk.

Q: How are these probabilities calculated?

We start from the real table and play the 207 remaining league matches 10,000 times with our statistical model (Poisson and Elo). They are estimates, not guarantees, and are recalculated twice a day.

Arminia Bielefeld go up automatically (top 2 in 2. Bundesliga) in 4% of our 10,000 simulations.

Updated: Wed 11 Nov

Title<1%

Automatic promotion (top 2)4%

Relegation<1%

Where they are and where they could finish

Current position: 6th
Points (11 matches): 17
Expected final points: 51
Most likely final position: 5th (17 %)
Range in 8 out of 10 simulations: 3rd to 10th

Arminia Bielefeld – 1. FC Magdeburg · Fri 20 Nov →

How their chances have changed

Last 60 days. Each point is a fresh calculation using real results.

TitleAutomatic promotion (top 2)Relegation

Where will Arminia Bielefeld finish?

Share of simulations in which they end in each position.

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Arminia Bielefeld go up automatically (top 2 in 2. Bundesliga) in 4% of our 10,000 simulations. Source: PronosLab, Wed 11 Nov. https://pronoslab.com/en/season-chances/arminia-bielefeld

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Frequently asked questions

Can Arminia Bielefeld win 2. Bundesliga?

Arminia Bielefeld win 2. Bundesliga in <1% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They rank 6 of 18 for title chances.

Will Arminia Bielefeld be promoted this season?

Arminia Bielefeld go up automatically (top 2 in 2. Bundesliga) in 4% of our 10,000 simulations.

Will Arminia Bielefeld be relegated?

Arminia Bielefeld are relegated in <1% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2. Bundesliga season. They rank 13 of 18 for relegation risk.

How are these probabilities calculated?

We start from the real table and play the 207 remaining league matches 10,000 times with our statistical model (Poisson and Elo). They are estimates, not guarantees, and are recalculated twice a day.

How it works

We start from the real table and play the remaining matches one by one, using our model's probabilities (Poisson and Elo).
We repeat the season 10,000 times and count how often each team finishes in each position. It updates twice a day.
Ties are broken by goal difference as an approximation; some leagues use head-to-head, so it may differ when teams are level on points.

Arminia Bielefeld team page · All 2. Bundesliga probabilities · Methodology

Probabilities estimated with our own model. They do not guarantee any result.