Simulation · 2. Bundesliga

What are SpVgg Greuther Fürth's chances this season?

Q: Can SpVgg Greuther Fürth win 2. Bundesliga?

SpVgg Greuther Fürth win 2. Bundesliga in 0% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They rank 13 of 18 for title chances.

Q: Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth be promoted this season?

SpVgg Greuther Fürth go up automatically (top 2 in 2. Bundesliga) in <1% of our 10,000 simulations.

Q: How are these probabilities calculated?

We start from the real table and play the 207 remaining league matches 10,000 times with our statistical model (Poisson and Elo). They are estimates, not guarantees, and are recalculated twice a day.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth are relegated in 14% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2. Bundesliga season.

Updated: Wed 11 Nov

Title0%

Automatic promotion (top 2)<1%

Relegation14%

Where they are and where they could finish

Current position: 10th
Points (11 matches): 12
Expected final points: 40
Most likely final position: 15th (10 %)
Range in 8 out of 10 simulations: 8th to 17th

Hannover 96 – SpVgg Greuther Fürth · Sat 21 Nov →

How their chances have changed

Last 60 days. Each point is a fresh calculation using real results.

TitleAutomatic promotion (top 2)Relegation

Where will SpVgg Greuther Fürth finish?

Share of simulations in which they end in each position.

1
2
3
4
15
36
47
68
79
710
911
912
1013
1014
1015
916
817
718

Quote or embed this figure

You can use these numbers on your site, newspaper or social channels if you credit the source (CC BY 4.0).

SpVgg Greuther Fürth are relegated in 14% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2. Bundesliga season. Source: PronosLab, Wed 11 Nov. https://pronoslab.com/en/season-chances/spvgg-greuther-fuerth

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Frequently asked questions

Can SpVgg Greuther Fürth win 2. Bundesliga?

SpVgg Greuther Fürth win 2. Bundesliga in 0% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They rank 13 of 18 for title chances.

Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth be promoted this season?

SpVgg Greuther Fürth go up automatically (top 2 in 2. Bundesliga) in <1% of our 10,000 simulations.

Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth be relegated?

SpVgg Greuther Fürth are relegated in 14% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2. Bundesliga season. They rank 6 of 18 for relegation risk.

How are these probabilities calculated?

We start from the real table and play the 207 remaining league matches 10,000 times with our statistical model (Poisson and Elo). They are estimates, not guarantees, and are recalculated twice a day.

How it works

We start from the real table and play the remaining matches one by one, using our model's probabilities (Poisson and Elo).
We repeat the season 10,000 times and count how often each team finishes in each position. It updates twice a day.
Ties are broken by goal difference as an approximation; some leagues use head-to-head, so it may differ when teams are level on points.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth team page · All 2. Bundesliga probabilities · Methodology

Probabilities estimated with our own model. They do not guarantee any result.