Simulation · 2. Bundesliga
What are FC St. Pauli's chances this season?
FC St. Pauli are relegated in 35% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2. Bundesliga season.
Updated: Wed 11 Nov
Where they are and where they could finish
- Current position
- 9th
- Points (11 matches)
- 12
- Expected final points
- 36
- Most likely final position
- 18th (19 %)
- Range in 8 out of 10 simulations
- 10th to 18th
How their chances have changed
Last 60 days. Each point is a fresh calculation using real results.
TitleAutomatic promotion (top 2)Relegation
Where will FC St. Pauli finish?
Share of simulations in which they end in each position.
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FC St. Pauli are relegated in 35% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2. Bundesliga season. Source: PronosLab, Wed 11 Nov. https://pronoslab.com/en/season-chances/fc-st-pauli
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Frequently asked questions
Can FC St. Pauli win 2. Bundesliga?
FC St. Pauli win 2. Bundesliga in 0% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They rank 18 of 18 for title chances.
Will FC St. Pauli be promoted this season?
FC St. Pauli go up automatically (top 2 in 2. Bundesliga) in 0% of our 10,000 simulations.
Will FC St. Pauli be relegated?
FC St. Pauli are relegated in 35% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2. Bundesliga season. They rank 1 of 18 for relegation risk.
How are these probabilities calculated?
We start from the real table and play the 207 remaining league matches 10,000 times with our statistical model (Poisson and Elo). They are estimates, not guarantees, and are recalculated twice a day.
How it works
- We start from the real table and play the remaining matches one by one, using our model's probabilities (Poisson and Elo).
- We repeat the season 10,000 times and count how often each team finishes in each position. It updates twice a day.
- Ties are broken by goal difference as an approximation; some leagues use head-to-head, so it may differ when teams are level on points.
FC St. Pauli team page · All 2. Bundesliga probabilities · Methodology
Probabilities estimated with our own model. They do not guarantee any result.
