Simulation · 2. Bundesliga

What are 1. FC Nürnberg's chances this season?

1. FC Nürnberg go up automatically (top 2 in 2. Bundesliga) in 48% of our 10,000 simulations.

Updated: Wed 11 Nov

Title6%

Automatic promotion (top 2)48%

Relegation0%

Where they are and where they could finish

Current position: 2nd
Points (11 matches): 24
Expected final points: 62
Most likely final position: 2nd (42 %)
Range in 8 out of 10 simulations: 2nd to 5th

1. FC Nürnberg – Eintracht Braunschweig · Sat 21 Nov →

How their chances have changed

Last 60 days. Each point is a fresh calculation using real results.

TitleAutomatic promotion (top 2)Relegation

Where will 1. FC Nürnberg finish?

Share of simulations in which they end in each position.

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1. FC Nürnberg go up automatically (top 2 in 2. Bundesliga) in 48% of our 10,000 simulations. Source: PronosLab, Wed 11 Nov. https://pronoslab.com/en/season-chances/1-fc-nuernberg

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Frequently asked questions

Can 1. FC Nürnberg win 2. Bundesliga?

1. FC Nürnberg win 2. Bundesliga in 6% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They rank 2 of 18 for title chances.

Will 1. FC Nürnberg be promoted this season?

1. FC Nürnberg go up automatically (top 2 in 2. Bundesliga) in 48% of our 10,000 simulations.

Will 1. FC Nürnberg be relegated?

1. FC Nürnberg are relegated in 0% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2. Bundesliga season. They rank 18 of 18 for relegation risk.

How are these probabilities calculated?

We start from the real table and play the 207 remaining league matches 10,000 times with our statistical model (Poisson and Elo). They are estimates, not guarantees, and are recalculated twice a day.

How it works

We start from the real table and play the remaining matches one by one, using our model's probabilities (Poisson and Elo).
We repeat the season 10,000 times and count how often each team finishes in each position. It updates twice a day.
Ties are broken by goal difference as an approximation; some leagues use head-to-head, so it may differ when teams are level on points.

1. FC Nürnberg team page · All 2. Bundesliga probabilities · Methodology

Probabilities estimated with our own model. They do not guarantee any result.