Simulation · 2. Bundesliga

What are 1. FC Kaiserslautern's chances this season?

Q: Can 1. FC Kaiserslautern win 2. Bundesliga?

1. FC Kaiserslautern win 2. Bundesliga in 1% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They rank 4 of 18 for title chances.

Q: Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern be relegated?

1. FC Kaiserslautern are relegated in <1% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2. Bundesliga season. They rank 16 of 18 for relegation risk.

Q: How are these probabilities calculated?

We start from the real table and play the 207 remaining league matches 10,000 times with our statistical model (Poisson and Elo). They are estimates, not guarantees, and are recalculated twice a day.

1. FC Kaiserslautern go up automatically (top 2 in 2. Bundesliga) in 17% of our 10,000 simulations.

Updated: Wed 11 Nov

Title1%

Automatic promotion (top 2)17%

Relegation<1%

Where they are and where they could finish

Current position: 3rd
Points (11 matches): 21
Expected final points: 57
Most likely final position: 3rd (24 %)
Range in 8 out of 10 simulations: 2nd to 7th

1. FC Kaiserslautern – Dynamo Dresden · Sun 22 Nov →

How their chances have changed

Last 60 days. Each point is a fresh calculation using real results.

TitleAutomatic promotion (top 2)Relegation

Where will 1. FC Kaiserslautern finish?

Share of simulations in which they end in each position.

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You can use these numbers on your site, newspaper or social channels if you credit the source (CC BY 4.0).

1. FC Kaiserslautern go up automatically (top 2 in 2. Bundesliga) in 17% of our 10,000 simulations. Source: PronosLab, Wed 11 Nov. https://pronoslab.com/en/season-chances/1-fc-kaiserslautern

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Frequently asked questions

Can 1. FC Kaiserslautern win 2. Bundesliga?

1. FC Kaiserslautern win 2. Bundesliga in 1% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season. They rank 4 of 18 for title chances.

Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern be promoted this season?

1. FC Kaiserslautern go up automatically (top 2 in 2. Bundesliga) in 17% of our 10,000 simulations.

Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern be relegated?

1. FC Kaiserslautern are relegated in <1% of our 10,000 simulations of the rest of the 2. Bundesliga season. They rank 16 of 18 for relegation risk.

How are these probabilities calculated?

We start from the real table and play the 207 remaining league matches 10,000 times with our statistical model (Poisson and Elo). They are estimates, not guarantees, and are recalculated twice a day.

How it works

We start from the real table and play the remaining matches one by one, using our model's probabilities (Poisson and Elo).
We repeat the season 10,000 times and count how often each team finishes in each position. It updates twice a day.
Ties are broken by goal difference as an approximation; some leagues use head-to-head, so it may differ when teams are level on points.

1. FC Kaiserslautern team page · All 2. Bundesliga probabilities · Methodology

Probabilities estimated with our own model. They do not guarantee any result.