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According to the PronosLab analysis, Trival Valderas have a 60% chance of beating Leganes, the draw 22% and an away win 19% (Copa del Rey, Tuesday 10 November). Final score: 0-1.

Positive signal for Trival Valderas

Trival Valderas vs Leganes prediction

Copa del Rey FT

Prediction

Low
Sealed Mon 9 Nov 08:51 07d52c6e34

Analysis produced with our own statistical model and artificial intelligence from official match data. Every figure is checked automatically against our database before publication, and the prediction is sealed before kick-off. How we work

OutcomeProb.
1 Trival Valderas win 60%
X Draw 22%
2 Leganes win 19%
Goals +2,5 ✗ Both teams to score Yes ✗

Recent form

Trival Valderas crest Trival Valderas
–Position
Leganes crest Leganes
–Position
LLDLL
CDR-3891Copa del Rey
FT 0–1
  1. Trival ValderasHome
  2. Estadio La CanalejaTuesday 10 November
  3. LeganesAway
PronosLab analystVerified data
Trival Valderas crest Trival Valderas Leganes crest Leganes 15 °C · Rain 100%
Trival Valderas win 60%
Draw 22%
Leganes win 19%

Prediction post-mortem

Got it wrong

We expected a home win for Trival Valderas and a match with goals, with Leganes in poor form, having won only one of their last 10 matches. The game ended 1-0 to Leganes, after a goalless first half. Both teams did not score and the match did not reach more than two goals, so all three predictions missed. Home advantage did not turn into goals, and the visitors took the only goal of the match.

We publish a post-mortem of every prediction, right or wrong. See our full track record →

You vs the AI

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YouYou didn't play
PronosLab2-10 pts
Result0-1Leganes

Analyst's view

Verified data

Trival Valderas host Leganes in the first round of the Copa del Rey with the visitors in poor form: Leganes have won 1 of their last 10 matches and conceded 13 goals in their 5 away games. Trival Valderas start with a 60% chance of a home win against 19% for the visitors, while the draw sits at 22%. With rain forecast, a 54% chance of both teams scoring and 54% for over 2.5 goals call for caution.

What moved the probability

Where every figure in the prediction comes from: the statistical model, the market and what the analyst changed with data. Pick an outcome.

Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 57.1%
Analyst adjustmentDriven by stats · weather · model +2.6
Published predictionTrival Valderas win 59.7%
Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 23.5%
Analyst adjustmentDriven by stats · weather · model −1.8
Published predictionDraw 21.7%
Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 19.4%
Analyst adjustmentDriven by stats · weather · model −0.8
Published predictionLeganes win 18.6%

Figures are the ones stored at publication. The analysis only moved away from the reference with verifiable data.

Who will score?

Estimate

Leganes

  1. 1
    Naim García Forward · 2 goals in 860 min
    17%
  2. 2
    Álvaro Morata Forward · 3 goals in 560 min
    14%
  3. 3
    Ismaël Gharbi Midfielder · 2 goals in 907 min
    11%
  4. 4
    P. Soko Forward · 1 goal in 685 min
    11%
  5. 5
    Miguel Atienza Midfielder · 1 goal in 839 min
    7%

Chance of scoring at least once: their team's expected goals in this match × their season scoring rate (smoothed) × the minutes they're expected to play. Confirmed absentees left out. An estimate, not a guarantee.

More match probabilities

Model · no AI

Who avoids defeat

  • Trival Valderas avoid defeat81%
  • No draw78%
  • Leganes avoid defeat40%

Goals

  • Over 1.5 goals78%
  • Over 2.5 goals54%
  • Over 3.5 goals32%

Expected goals: 2.9

Most likely scorelines

  • Trival Valderas 1 – 0 Leganes11.0%
  • Trival Valderas 2 – 0 Leganes10.4%
  • Trival Valderas 1 – 1 Leganes10.4%
  • Trival Valderas 2 – 1 Leganes9.9%
  • Trival Valderas 3 – 0 Leganes6.6%

Goals and scorelines come from the expected goals behind our 1X2; corners and cards from each team's recent matches with stats (and the referee). These are estimates, not guarantees.

Match timeline

16
  1. A. Rivero On · off Tanke
    17'
  2. J. Montero Yellow card
    28'
  3. N. Garcia Yellow card
    43'
  4. Half-time
  5. A. Millan Goal · assist by N. Garcia
    48'0-1
  6. I. Lopez Yellow card
    55'
  7. Choko On · off S. Alale
    58'
  8. I. Lopez On · off D. Rodriguez
    58'
  9. U. del Cura On · off M. Atienza
    63'
  10. D. Rodriguez On · off Marvel
    63'
  11. N. Garcia On · off Sule
    71'
  12. P. Soko On · off Alex Sancris
    71'
  13. F. Reguera On · off V. Calarge
    78'
  14. G. Yeboah On · off Y. Bayano
    78'
  15. Y. Kechta On · off A. Morata
    81'
  16. Tanke Yellow card
    82'
  17. D. O. Raul Yellow card
    86'
  18. Full-time

Goals, cards, substitutions and VAR decisions from the official match data; updated every minute during the game.

Live probability

0%Trival Valderas 0%Draw 100%Leganes
  • 50'Leganes goal (0-1): their chance of winning went from 18% to 56%.

It starts from our pre-match prediction and is recalculated with the score and the minute, without AI. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

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What's at stake

1/5
Little at stake
  • Top-tier league
  • Cup round

Match importance computed from the table, the season simulation, the round and the rivalry.

Recent form

Trival ValderasLeganes
Goals scored per game
0.000.80
Goals conceded per game
0.002.20

Head to head

No recent meetings in our database.

Team news

No significant absences confirmed.

Other Copa del Rey fixtures

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