According to the PronosLab analysis, Anaitasuna have a 63% chance of beating Alavés, the draw 19% and an away win 17% (Copa del Rey, Tuesday 10 November). Final score: 1-6.
Anaitasuna vs Alavés prediction
Copa del Rey
FT
Prediction
Low3c4aab3321 Analysis produced with our own statistical model and artificial intelligence from official match data. Every figure is checked automatically against our database before publication, and the prediction is sealed before kick-off. How we work
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Anaitasuna
AlavésPrediction post-mortem
Partly rightWe expected Anaitasuna to start with a slight edge after two straight wins, while Alavés arrived with five away games without a win. We also saw a match with goals, although with low confidence in the result. Alavés led 2-1 at half-time and went on to win 6-1. We got the 1X2 wrong, since their poor away record did not stop the visitors, but we were right that there would be more than 2.5 goals and that both teams would score.
We publish a post-mortem of every prediction, right or wrong. See our full track record →
You vs the AI
See leaderboard →The analysis for this match is being written in English and will be available shortly.
What moved the probability
Where every figure in the prediction comes from: the statistical model, the market and what the analyst changed with data. Pick an outcome.
Figures are the ones stored at publication. The analysis only moved away from the reference with verifiable data.
Who will score?
With confirmed line-upAnaitasuna
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1
Julen Aramendi Midfielder · 0 goals in 0 min65%
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2
Jokin Errazu Tolosa Midfielder · 0 goals in 0 min65%
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3
Julen Odriozola Defender · 0 goals in 0 min · on the bench8%
Alavés
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1
M. Díaz Forward · 4 goals in 475 min23%
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2
Hugo Novoa Forward · 1 goal in 89 min20%
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3
Miguel Rodríguez Forward · 0 goals in 24 min17%
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4
L. Boyé Forward · 5 goals in 887 min · on the bench5%
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5
Carles Aleñá Midfielder · 0 goals in 234 min5%
Chance of scoring at least once: their team's expected goals in this match × their season scoring rate (smoothed) × the minutes they're expected to play. Confirmed absentees left out. An estimate, not a guarantee.
More match probabilities
Model · no AIWho avoids defeat
- Anaitasuna avoid defeat83%
- No draw81%
- Alavés avoid defeat37%
Goals
- Over 1.5 goals85%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Over 3.5 goals43%
Expected goals: 3.4
Most likely scorelines
- Anaitasuna 2 – 1 Alavés9.8%
- Anaitasuna 2 – 0 Alavés8.9%
- Anaitasuna 1 – 1 Alavés8.7%
- Anaitasuna 1 – 0 Alavés7.9%
- Anaitasuna 3 – 1 Alavés7.3%
Goals and scorelines come from the expected goals behind our 1X2; corners and cards from each team's recent matches with stats (and the referee). These are estimates, not guarantees.
Match timeline
18-
Jonny Otto Goal · assist by M. Diaz28'0-1
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J. Aramendi Yellow card33'
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M. Diaz Goal · assist by Jonny Otto37'0-2
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C. Juaristi Goal · assist by A. Guembe43'1-2
- Half-time
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M. Rodriguez Goal · assist by C. Alena55'1-3
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M. Diaz Goal · assist by A. Perez57'1-4
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H. Hazim On · off L. Juaristi62'
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C. Protesoni On · off M. Diallo Selu65'
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A. Perez On · off A. Manas65'
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A. Pastrian On · off J. Olaizola69'
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J. Larramendi On · off E. Sudupe69'
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N. Valentini On · off N. Tenaglia71'
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D. Suarez On · off A. Guevara75'
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M. Diaz On · off T. Martinez75'
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A. Manas Goal79'1-5
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U. Perez On · off J. Odriozola80'
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J. Aramendi On · off J. Diaz80'
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C. Alena Goal · assist by T. Martinez86'1-6
- Full-time
Goals, cards, substitutions and VAR decisions from the official match data; updated every minute during the game.
Match stats
Full timeOur own index: 70% danger created (shots on target, shots inside the box, total shots, corners and xG) and 30% possession.
- 34% Possession 66%
- 4 Shots 20
- 1 Shots on target 8
- 2 Shots inside the box 12
- 1 Corners 5
- 5 Saves 0
- 243 Passes 490
- 73% Pass accuracy 88%
- 10 Fouls 5
- 1 Offsides 5
- 1 Yellow cards 0
Official match data. Updated every minute while live.
Live probability
- 29'Alavés goal (0-1): their chance of winning went from 18% to 44%.
- 38'Alavés goal (0-2): their chance of winning went from 46% to 74%.
- 44'Anaitasuna goal (1-2): their chance of winning went from 9% to 23%.
- 58'Alavés goal (1-4): their chance of winning went from 54% to 96%.
- 82'Alavés goal (1-5): their chance of winning went from >99% to >99%.
- 88'Alavés goal (1-6): their chance of winning went from 100% to 100%.
It starts from our pre-match prediction and is recalculated with the score and the minute, without AI. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Official line-ups
ConfirmedStarting elevens announced by the clubs before kick-off (updated at 18:45).
Bench (9)
- 1Josue GoenagaGK
- 23Ander BizkarguenagaDEF
- 4Julen Odriozola AlberdiDEF
- 2Julen Olaizola UcinDEF
- 18Jakes DíazDEF
- 11Luis JuaristiMID
- 20Mikel ZubizarretaMID
- 26Ekai SudupeMID
- 17Aritz ClementMID
Bench (10)
- 31Grégoire SwiderskiGK
- 1Antonio SiveraGK
- 14Nahuel TenagliaDEF
- 6Ander GuevaraMID
- 8Antonio BlancoMID
- 19Pablo IbáñezMID
- 24Selu DialloMID
- 15Lucas BoyéFWD
- 11Toni MartínezFWD
- 20Aitor MañasFWD
Official match data. The absences and doubts above are updated with the official report.
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What's at stake
1/5- Top-tier league
- Cup round
Match importance computed from the table, the season simulation, the round and the rivalry.
Recent form
Head to head
No recent meetings in our database.
Team news
No significant absences confirmed.
Other Copa del Rey fixtures
- Pamplona – EibarTue 10 Nov
- Amorebieta – UD LogroñésTue 10 Nov
- Trival Valderas – LeganesTue 10 Nov
- Mijas – Real JaénTue 10 Nov
Sources consulted
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