According to the PronosLab analysis, Amorebieta have a 45% chance of beating UD Logroñés, the draw 24% and an away win 31% (Copa del Rey, Tuesday 10 November). Final score: 1-0.

Positive signal for Amorebieta

Amorebieta vs UD Logroñés prediction

Copa del Rey FT

Prediction

Low

Sealed Mon 9 Nov 10:20 8915dba6c4

Analysis produced with our own statistical model and artificial intelligence from official match data. Every figure is checked automatically against our database before publication, and the prediction is sealed before kick-off. How we work

OutcomeProb.

1 Amorebieta win 45%

X Draw 24%

2 UD Logroñés win 31%

Goals +2,5 ✗ Both teams to score Yes ✗

Recent form

Amorebieta

–Position

UD Logroñés

–Position

CDR-3884Copa del Rey

FT 1–0

AmorebietaHome
Campo Municipal de UrritxeTuesday 10 November
UD LogroñésAway

PronosLab analystVerified data

Amorebieta

UD Logroñés 16 °C · Rain 63%

Amorebieta win 45%

Draw 24%

UD Logroñés win 31%

Prediction post-mortem

Called it

We expected a home win for Amorebieta, though with low confidence, and a match with goals from both sides. Amorebieta won 1-0 and the score was 0-0 at half-time, so the game was settled after the break. We got the winner right but missed on goals: it was a tight match with only one goal and no away goal.

We publish a post-mortem of every prediction, right or wrong. See our full track record →

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PronosLab2-12 pts

Result1-0Amorebieta

Analyst's view

Verified data

Amorebieta host UD Logroñés at Urritxe with the last meeting in their favour: a 4-1 win on 18 January 2026. Before that, UD Logroñés had won 2-1 in October 2025 and 1-0 in 2023, and there were two 1-1 draws, so the record between the sides is evenly split. The chances are 45% for a home win, 24% for a draw and 31% for an away win, with 57% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

What moved the probability

Where every figure in the prediction comes from: the statistical model, the market and what the analyst changed with data. Pick an outcome.

1Amorebieta win45% XDraw24% 2UD Logroñés win31%

Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 43.3%

Analyst adjustmentDriven by head-to-head · model · weather +1.9

Published predictionAmorebieta win 45.2%

Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 26.0%

Analyst adjustmentDriven by head-to-head · model · weather −1.7

Published predictionDraw 24.3%

Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 30.7%

Analyst adjustmentDriven by head-to-head · model · weather −0.2

Published predictionUD Logroñés win 30.5%

Figures are the ones stored at publication. The analysis only moved away from the reference with verifiable data.

Who will score?

With confirmed line-up

UD Logroñés

1
David Amigo Forward · 0 goals in 0 min
30%
2
Marcos Baselga Forward · 0 goals in 0 min
30%
3
P. Ba Forward · 0 goals in 0 min
30%
4
I. Asenjo Forward · 0 goals in 0 min · on the bench
8%
5
Ismael Santana Forward · 0 goals in 0 min · on the bench
8%

Chance of scoring at least once: their team's expected goals in this match × their season scoring rate (smoothed) × the minutes they're expected to play. Confirmed absentees left out. An estimate, not a guarantee.

More match probabilities

Model · no AI

Who avoids defeat

Amorebieta avoid defeat70%
No draw76%
UD Logroñés avoid defeat55%

Goals

Over 1.5 goals79%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Over 3.5 goals34%

Expected goals: 3.0

Most likely scorelines

Amorebieta 1 – 1 UD Logroñés11.2%
Amorebieta 2 – 1 UD Logroñés9.3%
Amorebieta 1 – 0 UD Logroñés8.6%
Amorebieta 1 – 2 UD Logroñés7.3%
Amorebieta 2 – 0 UD Logroñés7.1%

Goals and scorelines come from the expected goals behind our 1X2; corners and cards from each team's recent matches with stats (and the referee). These are estimates, not guarantees.

Match timeline

P. Ba Yellow card
37'
Half-time
P. Ba On · off I. Santana
46'
A. Intxausti On · off J. Muguruza
46'
J. Muguruza Yellow card
52'
Reka On · off X. Larralde
61'
T. Ajuriagoikoa On · off G. Agirre
61'
D. Amigo On · off I. Asenjo
61'
M. Zabala On · off A. Morales
62'
P. Brito On · off Q. Rivero
62'
J. Etxaniz On · off Guillermo
73'
M. Barandalla On · off D. Navarro
75'
X. Larralde Goal
77'1-0
J. Luis On · off U. Benito
83'
D. Navarro Yellow card
88'
A. Alvarez Yellow card
90+4'
Full-time

Goals, cards, substitutions and VAR decisions from the official match data; updated every minute during the game.

Live probability

100%Amorebieta 0%Draw 0%UD Logroñés

78'Amorebieta goal (1-0): their chance of winning went from 22% to 85%.

It starts from our pre-match prediction and is recalculated with the score and the minute, without AI. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Official line-ups

Confirmed

Starting elevens announced by the clubs before kick-off (updated at 19:55).

Amorebieta4-4-2

1Jon Altamira

3Asier Hernaiz

15E. Viña

4Javi Entreca

14Ekain Diaz

23José Luis

6T. Ajuriagoikoa

21E. Aguirregomezcorta

18Aitor Intxausti

9Jon Etxaniz

10Iker Rekagorri

Bench (11)

13Xabier MurgoitioGK
22Joseba MuguruzaDEF
29Ignacio Angulo GoveaMID
35Aritz PetralandaMID
20Gorka AgirreMID
40Unai Bikandi OrtegaFWD
27Jon Azkuna LarreaFWD
28Peru Candaudap YanizFWD
17Unax BenitoFWD
11Xalbat LarraldeFWD
19GuillermoFWD

UD Logroñés4-4-2

1Taliby Konate

12M. Barandalla

4Eduardo Cabetas

5Bolo

2Jose Val

27Prince Chinedu

16Mikel Zabala

17Latif Issman

18Papa Ba

11Marcos Baselga

7David Amigo

Bench (10)

13Fermín SobrónGK
14David NavarroDEF
22Carlos GarcíaDEF
15Manuel PedrenoDEF
21Ismael SantanaMID
26Iker Ucar AbadMID
20Anai MoralesMID
10Quique RiveroMID
28Jon Sorazu MangasFWD
19Ibai AsenjoFWD

Official match data. The absences and doubts above are updated with the official report.

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What's at stake

1/5

Little at stake

Top-tier league
Cup round

Match importance computed from the table, the season simulation, the round and the rivalry.

Recent form

AmorebietaUD Logroñés

Goals scored per game

0.000.00

Goals conceded per game

0.000.00

Head to head

Last 5

2Amorebieta

2Draws

1UD Logroñés

18 Jan 2026 UD Logroñés4–1Amorebieta
18 Oct 2025 Amorebieta2–1UD Logroñés
23 Apr 2023 Amorebieta1–0UD Logroñés
27 Nov 2022 UD Logroñés1–1Amorebieta
24 Jul 2021 Amorebieta1–1UD Logroñés

Team news

No significant absences confirmed.

Key facts

How did the last meeting end?

The last meeting, on 18/01/2026, finished UD Logroñés 4-1 Amorebieta.

Other Copa del Rey fixtures

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