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According to the PronosLab analysis, Pamplona have a 37% chance of beating Eibar, the draw 26% and an away win 38% (Copa del Rey, Tuesday 10 November). Final score: 0-3.

Evenly balanced for Pamplona

Pamplona vs Eibar prediction

Copa del Rey FT

Prediction

Low
Sealed Mon 9 Nov 10:20 6def56e3ba

Analysis produced with our own statistical model and artificial intelligence from official match data. Every figure is checked automatically against our database before publication, and the prediction is sealed before kick-off. How we work

OutcomeProb.
1 Pamplona win 37%
X Draw 26%
2 Eibar win 38%
Goals +2,5 ✓ Both teams to score Yes ✗

Recent form

Pamplona crest Pamplona
–Position
Eibar crest Eibar
–Position
DLDLW
CDR-3881Copa del Rey
FT 0–3
  1. PamplonaHome
  2. Campo de Fútbol BeitikuntzeaTuesday 10 November
  3. EibarAway
PronosLab analystVerified data
Pamplona crest Pamplona Eibar crest Eibar 16 °C · Rain 85%
Pamplona win 37%
Draw 26%
Eibar win 38%

Prediction post-mortem

Called it

We expected a narrow away win, with Eibar as slight favourites despite a closely matched tie, and a game with goals. Pamplona failed to score and Eibar led 2-0 at half time, finishing 3-0. We got the result and the over 2.5 right, but missed on both teams to score, as Eibar kept a clean sheet.

We publish a post-mortem of every prediction, right or wrong. See our full track record →

You vs the AI

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YouYou didn't play
PronosLab1-21 pts
Result0-3Eibar

Analyst's view

Verified data

Pamplona and Eibar meet in the Copa del Rey round of 128, a single-leg tie at the Campo de Fútbol Beitikuntzea, and the match looks very even: 37% for the hosts, 26% for a draw and 38% for the visitors. Eibar have won 6 of their last 10 matches and 4 of the 6 they played away, though only 1 of the last 5. Both teams to score stands at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

What moved the probability

Where every figure in the prediction comes from: the statistical model, the market and what the analyst changed with data. Pick an outcome.

Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 36.4%
Analyst adjustmentDriven by stats · weather +0.2
Published predictionPamplona win 36.6%
Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 26.5%
Analyst adjustmentDriven by stats · weather −1.0
Published predictionDraw 25.5%
Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 37.2%
Analyst adjustmentDriven by stats · weather +0.7
Published predictionEibar win 37.9%

Figures are the ones stored at publication. The analysis only moved away from the reference with verifiable data.

Who will score?

Estimate

Eibar

  1. 1
    Jon Guruzeta Forward · 3 goals in 766 min
    20%
  2. 2
    Malcom Adu Forward · 2 goals in 692 min
    18%
  3. 3
    Jon Bautista Forward · 1 goal in 678 min
    14%
  4. 4
    Ander Madariaga Midfielder · 2 goals in 966 min
    13%
  5. 5
    Iván Gil Midfielder · 4 goals in 603 min
    12%

Chance of scoring at least once: their team's expected goals in this match × their season scoring rate (smoothed) × the minutes they're expected to play. Confirmed absentees left out. An estimate, not a guarantee.

More match probabilities

Model · no AI

Who avoids defeat

  • Pamplona avoid defeat62%
  • No draw75%
  • Eibar avoid defeat63%

Goals

  • Over 1.5 goals76%
  • Over 2.5 goals56%
  • Over 3.5 goals30%

Expected goals: 2.8

Most likely scorelines

  • Pamplona 1 – 1 Eibar12.1%
  • Pamplona 0 – 1 Eibar8.9%
  • Pamplona 1 – 0 Eibar8.6%
  • Pamplona 1 – 2 Eibar8.5%
  • Pamplona 2 – 1 Eibar8.2%

Goals and scorelines come from the expected goals behind our 1X2; corners and cards from each team's recent matches with stats (and the referee). These are estimates, not guarantees.

Match timeline

14
  1. Javier Marton Goal · assist by Pejino
    2'0-1
  2. E. Perez Yellow card
    16'
  3. J. Magunazelaia Argoitia Goal · assist by Pejino
    22'0-2
  4. Half-time
  5. E. Perez On · off I. Zubiria
    46'
  6. A. Gil On · off O. Perez
    50'
  7. M. Cubillo On · off A. Pardo
    50'
  8. J. Magunazelaia Argoitia Goal · assist by L. Nunez
    53'0-3
  9. Pejino On · off J. Guruzeta
    57'
  10. J. Magunazelaia Argoitia On · off S. Alvarez
    58'
  11. J. Ripa On · off F. Frances
    60'
  12. M. Mahugo On · off J. Barber Sanz
    61'
  13. X. Bezunartea On · off A. Tabuenca
    66'
  14. Javier Marton On · off J. Bautista
    68'
  15. A. Pardo Yellow card
    85'
  16. Full-time

Goals, cards, substitutions and VAR decisions from the official match data; updated every minute during the game.

Live probability

0%Pamplona 0%Draw 100%Eibar
  • 3'Eibar goal (0-1): their chance of winning went from 38% to 64%.
  • 24'Eibar goal (0-2): their chance of winning went from 66% to 87%.
  • 54'Eibar goal (0-3): their chance of winning went from 93% to 99%.

It starts from our pre-match prediction and is recalculated with the score and the minute, without AI. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

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What's at stake

1/5
Little at stake
  • Top-tier league
  • Cup round

Match importance computed from the table, the season simulation, the round and the rivalry.

Recent form

PamplonaEibar
Goals scored per game
0.001.90
Goals conceded per game
0.001.10

Head to head

No recent meetings in our database.

Team news

No significant absences confirmed.

Other Copa del Rey fixtures

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