According to the PronosLab analysis, Mijas have a 76% chance of beating Real Jaén, the draw 15% and an away win 9% (Copa del Rey, Tuesday 10 November). Final score: 1-2.
Mijas vs Real Jaén prediction
Copa del Rey
FT
Prediction
Low2b82769201 Analysis produced with our own statistical model and artificial intelligence from official match data. Every figure is checked automatically against our database before publication, and the prediction is sealed before kick-off. How we work
Recent form
Mijas
Real JaénPrediction post-mortem
Partly rightWe expected a home win for Mijas, who started with the advantage of playing at home and of competing in a higher division. We also saw a match with goals, with both teams likely to score. Real Jaén led 0-1 at half time and won 2-1. We got the goals and both-teams-to-score readings right, but the result missed: home advantage was not enough.
We publish a post-mortem of every prediction, right or wrong. See our full track record →
You vs the AI
See leaderboard →The analysis for this match is being written in English and will be available shortly.
What moved the probability
Where every figure in the prediction comes from: the statistical model, the market and what the analyst changed with data. Pick an outcome.
Figures are the ones stored at publication. The analysis only moved away from the reference with verifiable data.
More match probabilities
Model · no AIWho avoids defeat
- Mijas avoid defeat91%
- No draw85%
- Real Jaén avoid defeat24%
Goals
- Over 1.5 goals84%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Over 3.5 goals42%
Expected goals: 3.3
Most likely scorelines
- Mijas 2 – 0 Real Jaén12.0%
- Mijas 3 – 0 Real Jaén10.2%
- Mijas 1 – 0 Real Jaén9.4%
- Mijas 2 – 1 Real Jaén9.0%
- Mijas 3 – 1 Real Jaén7.6%
Goals and scorelines come from the expected goals behind our 1X2; corners and cards from each team's recent matches with stats (and the referee). These are estimates, not guarantees.
Match timeline
19-
F. Gallego Goal22'0-1
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D. Gomez Yellow card25'
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C. Jimenez Yellow card39'
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A. Caballero Yellow card42'
- Half-time
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R. Wagner Yellow card52'
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C. Jimenez On · off P. Ariza57'
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R. Wagner On · off A. Peral57'
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M. Keita Goal63'0-2
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N. Castillo On · off Chino64'
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P. Adri On · off D. Rodriguez64'
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D. Serrano Yellow card66'
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Boris On · off D. Cabanas68'
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Yellow card69'
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F. Gallego On · off M. Cabello71'
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A. Appiah-Kubi On · off J. Gamez73'
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R. Perez Goal86'1-2
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O. Lozano Yellow card90+1'
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Yellow card90+3'
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Yellow card90+5'
- Full-time
Goals, cards, substitutions and VAR decisions from the official match data; updated every minute during the game.
Live probability
- 24'Real Jaén goal (0-1): their chance of winning went from 10% to 31%.
- 66'Real Jaén goal (0-2): their chance of winning went from 52% to 86%.
- 87'Mijas goal (1-2): their chance of winning went from <1% to 1%.
It starts from our pre-match prediction and is recalculated with the score and the minute, without AI. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.
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What's at stake
1/5- Top-tier league
- Cup round
Match importance computed from the table, the season simulation, the round and the rivalry.
Recent form
Head to head
Last 2- 18 Jan 2025 Mijas3–0Real Jaén
- 8 Sep 2024 Real Jaén1–1Mijas
Team news
No significant absences confirmed.
Key facts
How did the last meeting end?
The last meeting, on 18/01/2025, finished Mijas 3-0 Real Jaén.
Other Copa del Rey fixtures
- Pamplona – EibarTue 10 Nov
- Anaitasuna – AlavésTue 10 Nov
- Amorebieta – UD LogroñésTue 10 Nov
- Trival Valderas – LeganesTue 10 Nov
Sources consulted
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