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According to the PronosLab analysis, Tavernes have a 7% chance of beating Valencia, the draw 17% and an away win 76% (Copa del Rey, Tuesday 10 November). Final score: 0-6.

Negative signal for Tavernes

Tavernes vs Valencia prediction

Copa del Rey FT

Prediction

Medium
Sealed Tue 10 Nov 19:10 80eb3fe52d

Analysis produced with our own statistical model and artificial intelligence from official match data. Every figure is checked automatically against our database before publication, and the prediction is sealed before kick-off. How we work

OutcomeProb.
1 Tavernes win 7%
X Draw 17%
2 Valencia win 76%
Goals +2,5 ✓ Both teams to score No ✓
How the prediction changed (2 versions)
  1. Version 4Tue 10 Nov 02:04 🔏 124449fa
    1 8% X 17% 2 75%
  2. Version 5Tue 10 Nov 19:10 🔏 80eb3fe5
    1 7% -1 X 17% 2 76%

    New absence: Otorbi (Valencia)New absence: José Luis Gayà (Valencia)

Recent form

Tavernes crest Tavernes
–Position
DD
Valencia crest Valencia
–Position
LWLDD
CDR-3893Copa del Rey
FT 0–6
  1. TavernesHome
  2. Estadio de MestallaTuesday 10 November
  3. ValenciaAway
PronosLab analystVerified data
Tavernes crest Tavernes Valencia crest Valencia
Tavernes win 7%
Draw 17%
Valencia win 76%

Prediction post-mortem

Called it

We expected a win for Valencia, the favourite on category, with plenty of goals and no goals for both sides. Valencia beat Tavernes 6-0, who came in off two draws. At half time it was already 4-0, so the game was settled early. The forecast got the winner, the goal count and that Tavernes would not score.

We publish a post-mortem of every prediction, right or wrong. See our full track record →

You vs the AI

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YouYou didn't play
PronosLab0-21 pts
Result0-6Valencia

Analyst's view

Verified data

Valencia are favourites by status: they play in the top flight and Tavernes compete in a lower division. But Valencia have gone seven matches without a win at Mestalla, have lost 6 of their last 10 and are without José Luis Gayà and Otorbi. Tavernes have drawn their last two matches and arrive after 37 days without a game. A 76% chance of an away win and 17% for a draw.

What moved the probability

Where every figure in the prediction comes from: the statistical model, the market and what the analyst changed with data. Pick an outcome.

Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 9.1%
Analyst adjustmentDriven by model · absences and news · stats −0.7
Late updatePre-match review: absences, line-ups and new data −1.2
Published predictionTavernes win 7.2%
Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 19.0%
Analyst adjustmentDriven by model · absences and news · stats −2.0
Late updatePre-match review: absences, line-ups and new data −0.3
Published predictionDraw 16.7%
Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 71.9%
Analyst adjustmentDriven by model · absences and news · stats +2.7
Late updatePre-match review: absences, line-ups and new data +1.5
Published predictionValencia win 76.1%

Figures are the ones stored at publication. The analysis only moved away from the reference with verifiable data.

Who will score?

Estimate

Valencia

  1. 1
    A. Danjuma Forward · 0 goals in 929 min
    34%
  2. 2
    Luis Rioja Forward · 1 goal in 372 min
    18%
  3. 3
    Hugo Duro Forward · 0 goals in 429 min
    18%
  4. 4
    Pepelu Defender · 1 goal in 1.018 min
    17%
  5. 5
    U. Sadiq Forward · 2 goals in 246 min
    17%

Chance of scoring at least once: their team's expected goals in this match × their season scoring rate (smoothed) × the minutes they're expected to play. Confirmed absentees left out. An estimate, not a guarantee.

More match probabilities

Model · no AI

Who avoids defeat

  • Tavernes avoid defeat24%
  • No draw83%
  • Valencia avoid defeat93%

Goals

  • Over 1.5 goals74%
  • Over 2.5 goals50%
  • Over 3.5 goals27%

Expected goals: 2.7

Most likely scorelines

  • Tavernes 0 – 2 Valencia16.3%
  • Tavernes 0 – 1 Valencia15.2%
  • Tavernes 0 – 3 Valencia11.7%
  • Tavernes 1 – 2 Valencia8.2%
  • Tavernes 1 – 1 Valencia7.6%

Goals and scorelines come from the expected goals behind our 1X2; corners and cards from each team's recent matches with stats (and the referee). These are estimates, not guarantees.

Match timeline

19
  1. D. Raba Goal · assist by A. Blazquez
    1'0-1
  2. F. Ugrinic Yellow card
    9'
  3. H. Duro Goal · assist by D. Raba
    11'0-2
  4. L. Rioja Goal · assist by A. Martinez
    19'0-3
  5. M. Montilla Yellow card
    22'
  6. H. Elliott Goal
    23'0-4
  7. Half-time
  8. J. Talens Torres On · off J. Seral
    46'
  9. M. Montilla On · off E. Martinez
    46'
  10. L. Rioja Yellow card
    49'
  11. A. Blazquez Goal · assist by L. Rioja
    57'0-5
  12. J. Copete On · off I. Cordoba
    60'
  13. D. Raba On · off A. Mayol
    60'
  14. E. Alberola On · off J. Prats
    60'
  15. J. Palomares Sansaloni On · off S. Bono
    60'
  16. A. Blazquez Goal
    69'0-6
  17. A. Blazquez On · off A. Danjuma
    70'
  18. A. Martinez On · off J. De Haas
    70'
  19. L. Rioja On · off J. Gaya
    70'
  20. J. Ferrer On · off R. Palero Gascon
    74'
  21. Full-time

Goals, cards, substitutions and VAR decisions from the official match data; updated every minute during the game.

Live probability

0%Tavernes 0%Draw 100%Valencia
  • 3'Valencia goal (0-1): their chance of winning went from 76% to 93%.
  • 12'Valencia goal (0-2): their chance of winning went from 92% to 99%.
  • 21'Valencia goal (0-3): their chance of winning went from 99% to >99%.
  • 24'Valencia goal (0-4): their chance of winning went from >99% to >99%.
  • 59'Valencia goal (0-5): their chance of winning went from 100% to 100%.
  • 71'Valencia goal (0-6): their chance of winning went from 100% to 100%.

It starts from our pre-match prediction and is recalculated with the score and the minute, without AI. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

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What's at stake

1/5
Little at stake
  • Top-tier league
  • Cup round

Match importance computed from the table, the season simulation, the round and the rivalry.

Recent form

TavernesValencia
Goals scored per game
0.500.80
Goals conceded per game
0.501.90

Head to head

No recent meetings in our database.

Team news

2

Other Copa del Rey fixtures

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Sources consulted

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