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Simulation · our own model

Who will win Serie B?

We simulate the remaining 270 matches 10.000 times with our model, starting from the real table.

Updated: Wed 11 Nov · See table and fixtures

Title favourites
Palermo crest Palermo
75%
Chasing automatic promotion (top 2)
Ascoli crest Ascoli
32%
Most at risk of relegation
Catanzaro crest Catanzaro
72%
  1. 1 Palermo crest Palermo 27 78 75% 93% 0%
  2. 2 Modena crest Modena 23 69 16% 56% 0%
  3. 3 Ascoli crest Ascoli 20 66 7% 32% 0%
  4. 4 Mantova crest Mantova 19 59 1% 7% <1%
  5. 5 Avellino crest Avellino 16 57 1% 4% <1%
  6. 6 Benevento crest Benevento 16 56 <1% 4% 1%
  7. 12 Sudtirol crest Sudtirol 15 53 <1% 1% 2%
  8. 10 Padova crest Padova 15 52 <1% 1% 3%
  9. 9 Cremonese crest Cremonese 15 52 <1% 1% 3%
  10. 11 Cesena crest Cesena 15 50 <1% <1% 6%
  11. 7 Hellas Verona crest Hellas Verona 16 50 <1% <1% 5%
  12. 13 Juve Stabia crest Juve Stabia 12 49 0% <1% 7%
  13. 8 Pisa crest Pisa 16 46 0% <1% 16%
  14. 16 Virtus Entella crest Virtus Entella 10 45 0% <1% 18%
  15. 15 Sampdoria crest Sampdoria 11 45 0% <1% 19%
  16. 17 Carrarese crest Carrarese 10 44 0% <1% 25%
  17. 14 Arezzo crest Arezzo 11 42 0% <1% 35%
  18. 19 Empoli crest Empoli 9 41 0% 0% 41%
  19. 18 Vicenza Virtus crest Vicenza Virtus 9 40 0% <1% 46%
  20. 20 Catanzaro crest Catanzaro 6 36 0% 0% 72%

“Final pts” is the average points total at the end of the season across all simulations. ▲▼: change in percentage points over 7 days.

Simulator

What if…? Pick results and see how the season changes

Set the result of upcoming matches and we replay the rest of the league 4.000 times with our model. Matches you leave alone follow the model’s probabilities.

Sat 21 Nov

  • Sampdoria crest Sampdoria Benevento Benevento crest
  • Hellas Verona crest Hellas Verona Cesena Cesena crest
  • Ascoli crest Ascoli Vicenza Virtus Vicenza Virtus crest
  • Empoli crest Empoli Pisa Pisa crest
  • Avellino crest Avellino Mantova Mantova crest
  • Arezzo crest Arezzo Padova Padova crest
  • Sudtirol crest Sudtirol Cremonese Cremonese crest
  • Carrarese crest Carrarese Virtus Entella Virtus Entella crest
  • Catanzaro crest Catanzaro Palermo Palermo crest
  • Modena crest Modena Juve Stabia Juve Stabia crest

Tue 24 Nov

  • Benevento crest Benevento Empoli Empoli crest
  • Cesena crest Cesena Ascoli Ascoli crest
  • Cremonese crest Cremonese Avellino Avellino crest
  • Palermo crest Palermo Sudtirol Sudtirol crest
  • Virtus Entella crest Virtus Entella Hellas Verona Hellas Verona crest
  • Pisa crest Pisa Modena Modena crest
  • Padova crest Padova Sampdoria Sampdoria crest
  • Vicenza Virtus crest Vicenza Virtus Carrarese Carrarese crest
  • Mantova crest Mantova Arezzo Arezzo crest
  • Juve Stabia crest Juve Stabia Catanzaro Catanzaro crest

Sat 28 Nov

  • Sampdoria crest Sampdoria Cremonese Cremonese crest
  • Ascoli crest Ascoli Virtus Entella Virtus Entella crest
  • Empoli crest Empoli Hellas Verona Hellas Verona crest
  • Palermo crest Palermo Benevento Benevento crest
  • Arezzo crest Arezzo Pisa Pisa crest
  • Modena crest Modena Padova Padova crest
  • Sudtirol crest Sudtirol Mantova Mantova crest
  • Vicenza Virtus crest Vicenza Virtus Cesena Cesena crest
  • Catanzaro crest Catanzaro Avellino Avellino crest
  • Carrarese crest Carrarese Juve Stabia Juve Stabia crest

Under 1, X and 2 you can see our model’s probability. Tap again to clear a result.

0 results set

Pick one or more results and tap Recalculate.

Where will each team finish?

Share of simulations in which each team ends up in each position. The stronger the colour, the more likely.

1234567891011121314151617181920 Palermo 75 18 5 1 Modena 16 40 23 9 5 3 1 Ascoli 7 25 29 16 9 5 3 2 1 Mantova 6 13 19 15 12 10 7 5 4 3 2 2 1 Avellino 4 8 14 14 13 10 9 7 5 5 4 3 2 1 Benevento 3 8 12 14 12 11 9 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Sudtirol 1 3 6 9 9 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 1 Padova 2 5 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 3 3 2 Cremonese 3 5 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 4 3 2 Cesena 1 3 5 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Hellas Verona 1 3 5 6 7 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 Juve Stabia 1 3 4 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 3 2 Pisa 2 2 4 4 5 6 7 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 3 Virtus Entella 1 2 2 3 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 4 Sampdoria 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 4 Carrarese 1 2 3 4 4 6 7 7 9 9 10 10 10 9 6 Arezzo 1 2 3 4 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 10 Empoli 1 2 2 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 14 14 13 Vicenza Virtus 1 2 2 3 4 5 6 7 10 11 14 16 16 Catanzaro 2 2 3 4 6 9 13 20 39

How the title chances have changed

0%40%80% Mon 9 NovWed 11 Nov

AscoliPalermoModenaMantova

Frequently asked questions

Who are the favourites to win Serie B?

Palermo finish as champions in 75% of our 10.000 simulations of the rest of the season, ahead of Modena (16%).

Which teams are most at risk of relegation from Serie B?

According to our simulations: Catanzaro (72 %), Vicenza Virtus (46 %), Empoli (41 %), Arezzo (35 %).

How it works

Power rankings · Methodology