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Simulation · our own model

Who will win Austrian Bundesliga?

We simulate the remaining 60 matches 10.000 times with our model, starting from the real table.

Updated: Wed 11 Nov · See table and fixtures

Title favourites
Rapid Vienna crest Rapid Vienna
84%
Most at risk of relegation
Wolfsberger AC crest Wolfsberger AC
51%
  1. 1 Rapid Vienna crest Rapid Vienna 33 73 84% 0%
  2. 2 Red Bull Salzburg crest Red Bull Salzburg 30 65 15% 0%
  3. 3 Lask Linz crest Lask Linz 25 56 2% 0%
  4. 4 TSV Hartberg crest TSV Hartberg 20 47 <1% 0%
  5. 5 Sturm Graz crest Sturm Graz 19 46 <1% <1%
  6. 6 Ried crest Ried 16 43 0% <1%
  7. 7 WSG Wattens crest WSG Wattens 13 41 0% 1%
  8. 9 SCR Altach crest SCR Altach 10 35 0% 7%
  9. 11 Austria Vienna crest Austria Vienna 8 35 0% 9%
  10. 8 Austria Lustenau crest Austria Lustenau 11 34 0% 12%
  11. 10 Grazer AK crest Grazer AK 10 32 0% 21%
  12. 12 Wolfsberger AC crest Wolfsberger AC 6 28 0% 51%

“Final pts” is the average points total at the end of the season across all simulations. ▲▼: change in percentage points over 7 days.

Simulator

What if…? Pick results and see how the season changes

Set the result of upcoming matches and we replay the rest of the league 4.000 times with our model. Matches you leave alone follow the model’s probabilities.

Sat 21 Nov

  • Lask Linz crest Lask Linz TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg crest
  • WSG Wattens crest WSG Wattens Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau crest
  • Grazer AK crest Grazer AK Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna crest

Sun 22 Nov

  • SCR Altach crest SCR Altach Sturm Graz Sturm Graz crest
  • Wolfsberger AC crest Wolfsberger AC Ried Ried crest
  • Austria Vienna crest Austria Vienna Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg crest

Fri 27 Nov

  • Grazer AK crest Grazer AK SCR Altach SCR Altach crest

Sat 28 Nov

  • Austria Vienna crest Austria Vienna Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC crest
  • Austria Lustenau crest Austria Lustenau Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna crest

Sun 29 Nov

  • Sturm Graz crest Sturm Graz WSG Wattens WSG Wattens crest
  • Ried crest Ried TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg crest
  • Red Bull Salzburg crest Red Bull Salzburg Lask Linz Lask Linz crest

Fri 4 Dec

  • SCR Altach crest SCR Altach Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg crest

Sat 5 Dec

  • TSV Hartberg crest TSV Hartberg Grazer AK Grazer AK crest
  • Rapid Vienna crest Rapid Vienna Lask Linz Lask Linz crest

Sun 6 Dec

  • Wolfsberger AC crest Wolfsberger AC Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau crest
  • Ried crest Ried WSG Wattens WSG Wattens crest
  • Sturm Graz crest Sturm Graz Austria Vienna Austria Vienna crest

Fri 11 Dec

  • Austria Lustenau crest Austria Lustenau TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg crest

Sat 12 Dec

  • WSG Wattens crest WSG Wattens SCR Altach SCR Altach crest
  • Rapid Vienna crest Rapid Vienna Ried Ried crest

Sun 13 Dec

  • Red Bull Salzburg crest Red Bull Salzburg Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC crest
  • Grazer AK crest Grazer AK Sturm Graz Sturm Graz crest
  • Lask Linz crest Lask Linz Austria Vienna Austria Vienna crest

Sat 23 Jan

  • Austria Vienna crest Austria Vienna Grazer AK Grazer AK crest
  • Sturm Graz crest Sturm Graz Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC crest
  • Ried crest Ried SCR Altach SCR Altach crest
  • TSV Hartberg crest TSV Hartberg Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna crest
  • WSG Wattens crest WSG Wattens Lask Linz Lask Linz crest
  • Austria Lustenau crest Austria Lustenau Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg crest

Under 1, X and 2 you can see our model’s probability. Tap again to clear a result.

0 results set

Pick one or more results and tap Recalculate.

Where will each team finish?

Share of simulations in which each team ends up in each position. The stronger the colour, the more likely.

123456789101112 Rapid Vienna 84 15 1 Red Bull Salzburg 15 68 15 1 Lask Linz 2 15 64 15 4 TSV Hartberg 1 11 39 29 14 4 Sturm Graz 7 30 35 20 5 1 Ried 2 11 22 38 19 6 2 WSG Wattens 3 8 18 38 18 9 4 2 SCR Altach 4 11 24 22 18 13 7 Austria Vienna 2 9 20 23 21 16 9 Austria Lustenau 3 8 16 20 22 18 12 Grazer AK 1 4 10 16 21 26 21 Wolfsberger AC 1 4 7 13 24 51

How the title chances have changed

0%45%90% Tue 10 NovWed 11 Nov

Lask LinzRed Bull SalzburgRapid ViennaTSV Hartberg

Frequently asked questions

Who are the favourites to win Austrian Bundesliga?

Rapid Vienna finish as champions in 84% of our 10.000 simulations of the rest of the season, ahead of Red Bull Salzburg (15%).

Which teams are most at risk of relegation from Austrian Bundesliga?

According to our simulations: Wolfsberger AC (51 %), Grazer AK (21 %).

How it works

Power rankings · Methodology