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Questions · updated Wed 11 Nov

Who will win Premier League?

Across 10.000 simulations of the rest of the Premier League season (280 matches), Arsenal are favourites for the title at 70%, ahead of Brighton Hove (17%).

  1. 1 Arsenal crest Arsenal 70% 27 pts now
  2. 2 Brighton Hove crest Brighton Hove 17% 22 pts now
  3. 3 Man City crest Man City 11% 21 pts now
  4. 4 Liverpool crest Liverpool 1% 18 pts now

How we work it out: we start from the real table and play the 280 remaining matches 10.000 times with our statistical model (Poisson and Elo). Tie-breakers are approximate. Data from Wed 11 Nov.

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