Simulation · our own model
Who will win Premier League?
We simulate the remaining 290 matches 10.000 times with our model, starting from the real table.
Updated: Fri 6 Nov · after matchday 9 · See table and fixtures
Title favourites
Arsenal65%
ArsenalChasing a Champions League place (top 4)
Liverpool38%
LiverpoolMost at risk of relegation
Crystal Palace78%
Crystal Palace-
1
Arsenal
24
80
65%
>99%
0%
-
2
Man City
21
75
27%
97%
0%
-
3
Brighton Hove
19
68
7%
85%
0%
-
5
Liverpool
15
60
<1%
38%
<1%
-
4
Chelsea
16
56
<1%
18%
1%
-
6
Brentford
14
55
<1%
16%
1%
-
8
Aston Villa
12
54
<1%
11%
2%
-
9
Bournemouth
12
53
<1%
10%
2%
-
15
Coventry City
9
52
<1%
7%
3%
-
11
Ipswich Town
11
51
<1%
5%
4%
-
12
Leeds United
11
50
<1%
4%
5%
-
7
Everton
13
49
0%
3%
8%
-
13
Hull City
11
47
0%
2%
10%
-
14
Newcastle
11
46
0%
1%
15%
-
17
Man United
7
46
0%
1%
16%
-
10
Tottenham
12
45
0%
1%
20%
-
16
Fulham
9
44
0%
1%
24%
-
19
Nottingham
6
41
0%
<1%
40%
-
20
Sunderland
5
36
0%
0%
71%
-
18
Crystal Palace
7
35
0%
<1%
78%
“Final pts” is the average points total at the end of the season across all simulations. ▲▼: change in percentage points over 7 days.
Where will each team finish?
Share of simulations in which each team ends up in each position. The stronger the colour, the more likely.
1234567891011121314151617181920 Arsenal
65
26
7
2
Man City
27
45
19
5
2
Brighton Hove
7
22
41
15
7
4
2
Liverpool
3
13
22
16
12
8
7
5
4
3
2
1
Chelsea
1
5
12
12
12
11
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
2
1
Brentford
1
5
10
14
12
11
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
2
Aston Villa
3
8
10
11
10
9
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
3
2
1
Bournemouth
2
7
8
10
10
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
4
3
2
2
Coventry City
2
5
7
9
9
9
9
8
8
7
6
5
5
4
3
2
Ipswich Town
1
4
6
7
8
8
8
8
9
8
7
6
6
5
4
3
1
Leeds United
3
5
6
7
8
8
9
8
8
8
8
7
5
5
3
2
Everton
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
8
8
9
9
8
7
6
4
3
Hull City
1
3
4
5
5
6
8
8
9
9
9
9
8
7
6
3
1
Newcastle
2
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
9
9
9
8
5
2
Man United
2
3
4
4
6
6
7
8
8
9
9
10
9
8
6
3
Tottenham
1
2
3
4
4
5
6
8
8
9
10
10
10
9
7
3
Fulham
1
2
3
4
4
6
6
8
9
10
10
11
11
9
5
Nottingham
1
2
3
4
4
5
7
9
11
12
15
15
10
Sunderland
1
1
2
3
4
6
10
16
23
32
Crystal Palace
1
1
2
3
5
8
14
23
40
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites to win Premier League?
Arsenal finish as champions in 65% of our 10.000 simulations of the rest of the season, ahead of Man City (27%).
Which teams are most at risk of relegation from Premier League?
According to our simulations: Crystal Palace (78 %), Sunderland (71 %), Nottingham (40 %), Fulham (24 %).
How it works
- We start from the real table and play the remaining matches one by one, using our model's probabilities (Poisson and Elo).
- We repeat the season 10,000 times and count how often each team finishes in each position. It updates twice a day.
- Ties are broken by goal difference as an approximation; some leagues use head-to-head, so it may differ when teams are level on points.
