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Questions · updated Wed 11 Nov

Who will qualify for the Champions League from Serie A?

The teams most likely to finish in the top 4 of Serie A are Inter Milan (97%), Roma (92%), Como 1907 (86%), Lazio (62%), AC Milan (26%), according to 10.000 simulations of the rest of the season.

  1. 1 Inter Milan crest Inter Milan 97% 28 pts now
  2. 2 Roma crest Roma 92% 27 pts now
  3. 3 Como 1907 crest Como 1907 86% 23 pts now
  4. 4 Lazio crest Lazio 62% 29 pts now
  5. 5 AC Milan crest AC Milan 26% 24 pts now
  6. 6 Juventus crest Juventus 17% 18 pts now
  7. 7 Frosinone crest Frosinone 16% 20 pts now
  8. 8 Napoli crest Napoli 4% 15 pts now
  9. 9 Bologna crest Bologna 1% 17 pts now

How we work it out: we start from the real table and play the 270 remaining matches 10.000 times with our statistical model (Poisson and Elo). Tie-breakers are approximate. Data from Wed 11 Nov.

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