Simulation · our own model
Who will win Serie A?
We simulate the remaining 280 matches 10.000 times with our model, starting from the real table.
Updated: Fri 6 Nov · after matchday 10 · See table and fixtures
Title favourites
Inter Milan36%
Inter MilanChasing a Champions League place (top 4)
AC Milan27%
AC MilanMost at risk of relegation
Venezia FC85%
Venezia FC-
2
Inter Milan
25
80
36%
93%
0%
-
4
Como 1907
23
79
30%
91%
0%
-
3
Roma
24
77
22%
87%
0%
-
1
Lazio
28
73
9%
69%
0%
-
5
AC Milan
21
67
1%
27%
0%
-
6
Frosinone
20
65
1%
19%
<1%
-
7
Juventus
17
62
<1%
10%
0%
-
8
Napoli
14
58
<1%
3%
<1%
-
9
Bologna
14
52
0%
1%
<1%
-
13
Atalanta
11
49
0%
<1%
2%
-
10
Genoa
13
47
0%
<1%
3%
-
11
Torino
13
46
0%
<1%
4%
-
12
Cagliari
13
44
0%
0%
8%
-
15
Fiorentina
8
43
0%
<1%
11%
-
16
Sassuolo
8
40
0%
0%
20%
-
17
Parma
8
38
0%
0%
31%
-
14
Lecce
9
36
0%
0%
44%
-
19
Udinese
5
36
0%
0%
42%
-
18
Monza
7
35
0%
0%
50%
-
20
Venezia FC
3
28
0%
0%
85%
“Final pts” is the average points total at the end of the season across all simulations. ▲▼: change in percentage points over 7 days.
Where will each team finish?
Share of simulations in which each team ends up in each position. The stronger the colour, the more likely.
1234567891011121314151617181920 Inter Milan
36
27
19
11
5
2
Como 1907
30
26
21
13
6
2
Roma
22
26
24
16
8
3
1
Lazio
9
14
20
25
16
9
4
2
AC Milan
1
4
8
14
23
21
15
9
3
1
Frosinone
2
5
11
21
23
17
11
5
2
Juventus
1
3
6
13
20
24
17
8
4
2
Napoli
2
6
12
20
24
15
9
5
3
1
Bologna
1
4
8
15
21
17
12
8
5
3
2
1
Atalanta
2
4
9
15
17
15
12
9
6
5
3
2
Genoa
2
4
9
13
14
14
13
10
7
6
4
2
1
Torino
2
4
9
12
14
14
12
11
8
6
4
2
1
Cagliari
2
5
8
11
13
13
13
11
9
6
5
2
Fiorentina
2
4
7
9
11
13
13
12
10
8
6
4
2
Sassuolo
2
4
6
9
10
12
13
12
11
10
7
4
Parma
2
4
6
7
10
12
13
14
13
12
6
Lecce
2
4
5
7
10
12
15
17
17
10
Udinese
1
2
4
6
7
10
12
15
16
16
11
Monza
2
2
4
6
8
11
15
17
19
14
Venezia FC
1
2
4
6
11
21
53
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites to win Serie A?
Inter Milan finish as champions in 36% of our 10.000 simulations of the rest of the season, ahead of Como 1907 (30%).
Which teams are most at risk of relegation from Serie A?
According to our simulations: Venezia FC (85 %), Monza (50 %), Lecce (44 %), Udinese (42 %).
How it works
- We start from the real table and play the remaining matches one by one, using our model's probabilities (Poisson and Elo).
- We repeat the season 10,000 times and count how often each team finishes in each position. It updates twice a day.
- Ties are broken by goal difference as an approximation; some leagues use head-to-head, so it may differ when teams are level on points.
