According to the PronosLab analysis, CD Nacional have a 26% chance of beating Acad. Viseu, the draw 27% and an away win 47% (Primeira Liga, Sunday 8 November). Final score: 1-0.

Negative signal for CD Nacional

CD Nacional vs Acad. Viseu prediction

Primeira Liga · MD11 FT

Prediction

Medium

Sealed Fri 6 Nov 08:56 cfa1edda96

Analysis produced with our own statistical model and artificial intelligence from official match data. Every figure is checked automatically against our database before publication, and the prediction is sealed before kick-off. How we work

OutcomeProb.

1 CD Nacional win 26%

X Draw 27%

2 Acad. Viseu win 47%

Goals +2,5 ✗ Both teams to score Yes ✗

Recent form

CD Nacional

13thPosition

LWLLL

Acad. Viseu

6thPosition

WWWWW

PPL-117Primeira Liga · MD11

FT 1–0

CD Nacional13th · Home
Estádio da MadeiraSunday 8 November
Acad. Viseu6th · Away

PronosLab analystVerified data

CD Nacional

Acad. Viseu 20 °C · Rain 98%

CD Nacional win 26%

Draw 27%

Acad. Viseu win 47%

Prediction post-mortem

Got it wrong

We expected Acad. Viseu to win, as they arrived sixth on a five-match winning run, against a CD Nacional side who sit 15th after losing four of their last five. We also expected goals. Nacional won 1-0 and the game was goalless at half-time. We missed on the result and on the goals: the home side took the points and the match ended with fewer goals than we had predicted and without both teams scoring.

We publish a post-mortem of every prediction, right or wrong. See our full track record →

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PronosLab0-10 pts

Result1-0CD Nacional

Analyst's view

Verified data

Acad. Viseu arrive on a run of five straight wins and CD Nacional have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, which is why the visitors start as favourites: 47% for an away win, 27% for a draw and 26% for a home win. On goals, 52% for over 2.5 and 55% for both teams to score.

What moved the probability

Where every figure in the prediction comes from: the statistical model, the market and what the analyst changed with data. Pick an outcome.

1CD Nacional win26% XDraw27% 2Acad. Viseu win47%

Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 26.1%

Analyst adjustmentDriven by stats · weather −0.1

Published predictionCD Nacional win 26.0%

Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 26.2%

Analyst adjustmentDriven by stats · weather +0.8

Published predictionDraw 27.0%

Statistical modelPoisson + Elo: goals, home advantage, form and team strength 47.7%

Analyst adjustmentDriven by stats · weather −0.8

Published predictionAcad. Viseu win 47.0%

Figures are the ones stored at publication. The analysis only moved away from the reference with verifiable data.

Who will score?

With confirmed line-up

CD Nacional

1
N. Kader Forward · 2 goals in 320 min
20%
2
Song Min-Kyu Forward · 0 goals in 398 min
13%
3
S. Gavriel Forward · 0 goals in 486 min
12%
4
Miguel Baeza Midfielder · 2 goals in 802 min
8%
5
F. Nava Forward · 0 goals in 34 min · on the bench
4%

Acad. Viseu

1
André Clóvis Forward · 5 goals in 891 min
32%
2
João Guilherme Midfielder · 3 goals in 915 min
16%
3
S. Messeguem Midfielder · 3 goals in 977 min
16%
4
C. Kahraman Midfielder · 1 goal in 774 min
10%
5
M. Bouldini Forward · 1 goal in 43 min · on the bench
8%

Chance of scoring at least once: their team's expected goals in this match × their season scoring rate (smoothed) × the minutes they're expected to play. Confirmed absentees left out. An estimate, not a guarantee.

More match probabilities

Model · no AI

Who avoids defeat

CD Nacional avoid defeat53%
No draw73%
Acad. Viseu avoid defeat74%

Goals

Over 1.5 goals68%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Over 3.5 goals21%

Expected goals: 2.4

Most likely scorelines

CD Nacional 0 – 1 Acad. Viseu13.4%
CD Nacional 1 – 1 Acad. Viseu12.7%
CD Nacional 0 – 0 Acad. Viseu9.5%
CD Nacional 0 – 2 Acad. Viseu9.3%
CD Nacional 1 – 0 Acad. Viseu9.1%

Goals and scorelines come from the expected goals behind our 1X2; corners and cards from each team's recent matches with stats (and the referee). These are estimates, not guarantees.

Match timeline

Cihan Kahraman Yellow card
7'
Full-time

Goals, cards, substitutions and VAR decisions from the official match data; updated every minute during the game.

Match stats

Full time

CD NacionalPronosLab dominanceAcad. Viseu

55%45%

Our own index: 70% danger created (shots on target, shots inside the box, total shots, corners and xG) and 30% possession.

CD Nacional expected goals1.17 xGscored 1

Acad. Viseu expected goals0.65 xGscored 0

51% Possession 49%
19 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 6
9 Shots inside the box 7
6 Corners 5
6 Saves 5
341 Passes 325
8 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 3
3 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Official match data. Updated every minute while live.

Live probability

100%CD Nacional 0%Draw 0%Acad. Viseu

89'CD Nacional goal (1-0): their chance of winning went from 6% to 94%.

It starts from our pre-match prediction and is recalculated with the score and the minute, without AI. It is an estimate, not a guarantee.

Official line-ups

Confirmed

Starting elevens announced by the clubs before kick-off (updated at 16:05).

CD Nacional4-3-3

1Renato Bellucci

21W. Kokolo

38Zé Vitor

33F. Gonçalves

7M. Jensen

15C. Labidi

6Matheus Dias

8Miguel Baeza

12Song Min-Kyu

29N. Kader

11S. Gavriel

Manager João Henriques

Bench (12)

26Joel da SilvaMID
99Pablo RuanFWD
17F. NavaFWD
50KevynGK
5José GomesDEF
13João GonçalvesGK
14Ivanildo FernandesDEF
31D. DongmoMID
20Matchoi DjalóMID
10Daniel JúniorMID
88DeivisonMID
9A. ObandoFWD

Acad. Viseu4-2-3-1

98Ewerton

3Miguel Brau

2N. Michelis

41A. Correia

75Robinho

14S. Messeguem

7Luís Silva

22Nils Mortimer

8C. Kahraman

31João Guilherme

33André Clóvis

Manager Bruno Pinheiro

Bench (12)

6André CeitilMID
10Á. ZamoraFWD
21Tomás DomingosDEF
18C. FerreiraMID
82H. GamborDEF
47L. GohiFWD
57G. CostaDEF
45Alejandro MestanzaMID
5Pedro BarcelosDEF
44Rúben PereiraDEF
12Juan SorianoGK
9M. BouldiniFWD

Official match data. The absences and doubts above are updated with the official report.

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What's at stake

1/5

Little at stake

No special signals: just another match of the round.

Match importance computed from the table, the season simulation, the round and the rivalry.

Rest and travel

Both sides arrive with a similar load.

CD Nacional 16/100

Fresh

Rest: 7 days
Games in 14 days: 2
Travel in 14 days: 2.399 km
Next game: –

Acad. Viseu 14/100

Fresh

Rest: 7 days
Games in 14 days: 2
Travel in 14 days: 1.416 km
Next game: –

Index from 0 to 100 built from rest days, games in every competition we follow, kilometres between stadiums and whether they play again within 4 days.

Recent form

CD NacionalAcad. Viseu

Goals scored per game

1.001.50

Goals conceded per game

1.901.20

League position

13^th 10 pts 6^th 20 pts

Head to head

Last 1

1CD Nacional

0Draws

0Acad. Viseu

8 Nov 2026 CD Nacional1–0Acad. Viseu

Team news

No significant absences confirmed.

Key facts

How do CD Nacional and Acad. Viseu come into the match?

CD Nacional are 13th on 10 points and Acad. Viseu 6th on 20.

How did the last meeting end?

The last meeting, on 08/11/2026, finished CD Nacional 1-0 Acad. Viseu.

Other Primeira Liga fixtures

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