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Copa del Rey likely goalscorers

Each player's chance of scoring from our statistical model, their goals and their minutes. Built for fantasy football.

Predicted lineups → · Fantasy football tips →

Most likely to score

  1. 1BruguiLevante away at Tarancón · 5 goals47%
  2. 2A. EzzalzouliReal Betis away at Navalcarnero · 4 goals36%
  3. 3Iván RomeroLevante away at Tarancón · 3 goals34%
  4. 4Marc BartraReal Betis away at Navalcarnero · 5 goals33%
  5. 5C. HernándezReal Betis away at Navalcarnero · 3 goals33%
  6. 6IscoReal Betis away at Navalcarnero · 4 goals31%
  7. 7Ferran JutglàCelta away at Salamanca UDS · 2 goals31%
  8. 8Pablo DuránCelta away at Salamanca UDS · 3 goals29%
  9. 9José CorpasAlbacete away at Calvo Sotelo · 0 goals25%
  10. 10Javi RodríguezCelta away at Salamanca UDS · 3 goals23%
  11. 11T. FernándezLevante away at Tarancón · 0 goals20%
  12. 12Alex RubioAlbacete away at Calvo Sotelo · 2 goals19%
  13. 13Mario SoberónAlbacete away at Calvo Sotelo · 0 goals15%
  14. 14W. SwedbergCelta away at Salamanca UDS · 0 goals15%
  15. 15San BartoloméAlbacete away at Calvo Sotelo · 2 goals15%

Clean sheet chance

  1. 1Celtaaway at Salamanca UDS56%
  2. 2Real Betisaway at Navalcarnero51%
  3. 3Levanteaway at Tarancón47%
  4. 4Albaceteaway at Calvo Sotelo31%
  5. 5Calvo Soteloat home to Albacete17%
  6. 6Tarancónat home to Levante10%
  7. 7Salamanca UDSat home to Celta9%
  8. 8Navalcarneroat home to Real Betis4%

Match by match

Thu 12 Nov · 18:30

Calvo Sotelo – Albacete

Model expected goals: 1.18 – 1.77
Calvo Sotelo
    Albacete
    1. FWDJosé Corpas25%
    2. FWDAlex Rubio19%
    3. FWDMario Soberón15%
    4. MIDSan Bartolomé15%
    Thu 12 Nov · 19:00

    Tarancón – Levante

    Model expected goals: 0.75 – 2.35
    Tarancón
      Levante
      1. FWDBrugui47%
      2. FWDIván Romero34%
      3. FWDT. Fernández20%
      4. MIDJon Ander Olasagasti14%
      Thu 12 Nov · 19:00

      Navalcarnero – Real Betis

      Model expected goals: 0.68 – 3.16
      Navalcarnero
        Real Betis
        1. MIDA. Ezzalzouli36%
        2. DEFMarc Bartra33%
        3. FWDC. Hernández33%
        4. MIDIsco31%
        Fri 13 Nov · 21:00

        Salamanca UDS – Celta

        Model expected goals: 0.57 – 2.37
        Salamanca UDS
          Celta
          1. FWDFerran Jutglà31%
          2. FWDPablo Durán29%
          3. DEFJavi Rodríguez23%
          4. FWDW. Swedberg15%

          Probabilities from our statistical model (each team's expected goals), split by each player's scoring rate and expected minutes; once the official XI is out, only starters and substitutes count. Confirmed absentees are excluded and doubts count half. These are estimates, not guarantees.

          Frequently asked questions

          Who is most likely to score in Copa del Rey gameweek ?

          Brugui (Levante, against Tarancón) at 47% according to our model.

          Which team is most likely to keep a clean sheet?

          Celta against Salamanca UDS: a 56% chance of not conceding.

          How is the chance of scoring calculated?

          We start from each team's expected goals in the model, split them by each player's goals per 90 minutes (smoothed by position) and their expected minutes. The chance of scoring at least once is 1 − e^(−the player's expected goals).