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Champions League

Who will win the Champions League? Probabilities

We simulate the 72 remaining league-phase matches and the whole bracket to the final 8.000 times.

Updated: Wed 11 Nov

According to our simulations of Wed 11 Nov, Bayern are favourites to win the Champions League with a 19% chance, ahead of Barcelona (18%).

Title favourite
Bayern crest Bayern
19%
Fighting for the top 8
Como 1907 crest Como 1907
56%
Most at risk of going out
Sl. Bratislava crest Sl. Bratislava
99%

Road to the final

Each team's chance of reaching each round. Top 8 = straight into the last 16; 9th to 24th play the knockout play-off.

  1. 1 Bayern crest Bayern 8 81% 97% 72% 49% 32% 19%
  2. 2 Barcelona crest Barcelona 9 74% 96% 70% 48% 31% 18%
  3. 3 Real Madrid crest Real Madrid 12 94% 99% 66% 39% 21% 10%
  4. 4 Arsenal crest Arsenal 10 79% 95% 62% 36% 20% 10%
  5. 5 Paris Saint-Germain crest Paris Saint-Germain 12 94% 98% 62% 34% 17% 9%
  6. 6 Como 1907 crest Como 1907 9 56% 87% 50% 26% 13% 6%
  7. 7 Sporting CP crest Sporting CP 9 33% 75% 39% 18% 8% 4%
  8. 8 Man City crest Man City 9 46% 83% 45% 22% 10% 4%
  9. 9 Dortmund crest Dortmund 9 44% 81% 42% 20% 9% 4%
  10. 10 Inter Milan crest Inter Milan 6 21% 72% 38% 19% 9% 4%
  11. 11 Roma crest Roma 4 4% 51% 25% 12% 5% 2%
  12. 12 Porto crest Porto 3 2% 46% 20% 9% 4% 2%
  13. 13 PSV crest PSV 4 2% 38% 15% 6% 2% 1%
  14. 14 Atlético Madrid crest Atlético Madrid 4 5% 51% 20% 9% 3% 1%
  15. 15 Liverpool crest Liverpool 9 34% 69% 28% 10% 3% 1%
  16. 16 Club Brugge crest Club Brugge 9 40% 71% 25% 8% 2% 1%
  17. 17 Stuttgart crest Stuttgart 7 12% 53% 20% 7% 2% 1%
  18. 18 Real Betis crest Real Betis 9 21% 62% 22% 7% 2% 1%
  19. 19 Aston Villa crest Aston Villa 9 49% 76% 29% 9% 2% 1%
  20. 20 RB Leipzig crest RB Leipzig 3 <1% 30% 10% 4% 1% <1%
  21. 21 Villarreal crest Villarreal 3 1% 37% 11% 4% 1% <1%
  22. 22 Napoli crest Napoli 3 <1% 20% 6% 2% <1% <1%
  23. 23 Man United crest Man United 6 3% 31% 8% 2% 1% <1%
  24. 24 Feyenoord crest Feyenoord 3 <1% 17% 4% 1% <1% <1%
  25. 25 Lask Linz crest Lask Linz 6 3% 25% 5% 1% <1% <1%
  26. 26 Lille crest Lille 1 0% 3% 1% <1% <1% <1%
  27. 27 Shaktar crest Shaktar 4 <1% 7% 1% <1% <1% 0%
  28. 28 RC Lens crest RC Lens 3 <1% 5% 1% <1% <1% 0%
  29. 29 Galatasaray crest Galatasaray 6 1% 10% 1% <1% 0% 0%
  30. 30 Fenerbahçe crest Fenerbahçe 5 <1% 5% 1% <1% 0% 0%
  31. 31 Bodø/Glimt crest Bodø/Glimt 4 <1% 5% 1% <1% 0% 0%
  32. 32 Viking crest Viking 4 <1% 5% 1% <1% 0% 0%
  33. 33 AEK Athens crest AEK Athens 3 <1% 1% <1% 0% 0% 0%
  34. 34 Sabah FK crest Sabah FK 3 0% 1% <1% 0% 0% 0%
  35. 35 Slavia Praha crest Slavia Praha 1 0% <1% <1% 0% 0% 0%
  36. 36 Sl. Bratislava crest Sl. Bratislava 0 0% <1% 0% 0% 0% 0%

Approximate tie-breaks (points, goal difference, goals). Play-off and last-16 pairings by seeding pairs as in the official format; two-legged ties with the second leg at the higher-placed team, final at a neutral venue.

League phase: table and zones

Points today and the chance of finishing in each zone: top 8 (last 16), 9th–24th (play-off) or 25th–36th (out).

  1. 1 Real Madrid crest Real Madrid12 4 played
  2. 2 Paris Saint-Germain crest Paris Saint-Germain12 4 played
  3. 3 Arsenal crest Arsenal10 4 played
  4. 4 Barcelona crest Barcelona9 4 played
  5. 5 Dortmund crest Dortmund9 4 played
  6. 6 Como 1907 crest Como 19079 4 played
  7. 7 Aston Villa crest Aston Villa9 4 played
  8. 8 Man City crest Man City9 4 played
  9. 9 Club Brugge crest Club Brugge9 4 played
  10. 10 Sporting CP crest Sporting CP9 4 played
  11. 11 Liverpool crest Liverpool9 4 played
  12. 12 Real Betis crest Real Betis9 4 played
  13. 13 Bayern crest Bayern8 4 played
  14. 14 Stuttgart crest Stuttgart7 4 played
  15. 15 Inter Milan crest Inter Milan6 4 played
  16. 16 Lask Linz crest Lask Linz6 4 played
  17. 17 Man United crest Man United6 4 played
  18. 18 Galatasaray crest Galatasaray6 4 played
  19. 19 Fenerbahçe crest Fenerbahçe5 4 played
  20. 20 Atlético Madrid crest Atlético Madrid4 4 played
  21. 21 Roma crest Roma4 4 played
  22. 22 PSV crest PSV4 4 played
  23. 23 Shaktar crest Shaktar4 4 played
  24. 24 Bodø/Glimt crest Bodø/Glimt4 4 played
  25. 25 Viking crest Viking4 4 played
  26. 26 Villarreal crest Villarreal3 4 played
  27. 27 Porto crest Porto3 4 played
  28. 28 RB Leipzig crest RB Leipzig3 4 played
  29. 29 Feyenoord crest Feyenoord3 4 played
  30. 30 Napoli crest Napoli3 4 played
  31. 31 RC Lens crest RC Lens3 4 played
  32. 32 AEK Athens crest AEK Athens3 4 played
  33. 33 Sabah FK crest Sabah FK3 4 played
  34. 34 Lille crest Lille1 4 played
  35. 35 Slavia Praha crest Slavia Praha1 4 played
  36. 36 Sl. Bratislava crest Sl. Bratislava0 4 played

Top 8 Play-off (9th–24th) Out (25th–36th)

Frequently asked questions

Who will win the Champions League?

Based on 8.000 simulations of the rest of the competition, Bayern are favourites with a 19% chance of winning the Champions League, ahead of Barcelona (18%). It's a probability, not a certainty, and it's recalculated twice a day.

Who will finish in the top 8 of the league phase?

The teams most likely to finish in the top 8 and go straight into the last 16 are Real Madrid (94 %), Paris Saint-Germain (94 %), Bayern (81 %), Arsenal (79 %), Barcelona (74 %), Como 1907 (56 %), Aston Villa (49 %), Man City (46 %).

Which teams are most at risk of going out in the league phase?

The teams most at risk of finishing between 25th and 36th are Sl. Bratislava (99 %), Slavia Praha (99 %), Sabah FK (93 %), AEK Athens (92 %), Lille (91 %).

How are these probabilities calculated?

We start from the real results and play the 72 remaining league-phase matches and every knockout round 8.000 times with our statistical model (Poisson and Elo), adjusted for the strength of each domestic league.