Simulation · our own model
Who will win Primeira Liga?
We simulate the remaining 216 matches 10.000 times with our model, starting from the real table.
Updated: Fri 6 Nov · after matchday 10 · See table and fixtures
Title favourites
Porto55%
PortoChasing a Champions League place (top 2)
Sporting CP35%
Sporting CPMost at risk of relegation
Estoril Praia58%
Estoril Praia-
1
Porto
30
78
55%
87%
0%
-
2
Benfica
25
75
35%
77%
0%
-
3
Sporting CP
21
70
10%
35%
0%
-
5
Acad. Viseu
20
56
<1%
1%
0%
-
4
Santa Clara
21
56
<1%
1%
0%
-
6
Arouca
20
54
<1%
<1%
0%
-
8
Braga
14
52
<1%
<1%
<1%
-
7
Gil Vicente
15
48
0%
<1%
<1%
-
11
Famalicão
10
45
0%
<1%
<1%
-
9
Moreirense
14
43
0%
0%
1%
-
10
Alverca
11
42
0%
0%
1%
-
13
Vitória SC
9
39
0%
0%
3%
-
12
Amadora
10
36
0%
0%
10%
-
14
Marítimo
8
33
0%
0%
22%
-
15
CD Nacional
7
33
0%
0%
21%
-
16
Rio Ave
7
30
0%
0%
41%
-
17
Casa Pia
7
30
0%
0%
42%
-
18
Estoril Praia
2
27
0%
0%
58%
“Final pts” is the average points total at the end of the season across all simulations. ▲▼: change in percentage points over 7 days.
Where will each team finish?
Share of simulations in which each team ends up in each position. The stronger the colour, the more likely.
123456789101112131415161718 Porto
55
32
12
Benfica
35
42
20
2
Sporting CP
10
25
54
8
2
Acad. Viseu
4
27
23
17
12
7
4
2
1
Santa Clara
5
26
24
18
12
7
4
2
Arouca
2
17
20
19
16
12
7
4
2
1
Braga
1
13
17
18
18
14
8
5
3
2
Gil Vicente
4
7
11
16
18
15
12
8
4
2
1
Famalicão
1
3
6
10
14
17
16
13
9
6
3
2
Moreirense
1
3
6
9
14
16
17
13
9
6
3
2
Alverca
1
3
6
9
13
15
16
13
9
6
4
2
Vitória SC
1
3
6
10
13
15
16
14
9
6
4
2
1
Amadora
2
4
6
10
13
16
15
13
10
7
3
Marítimo
1
3
5
9
12
15
16
15
13
10
CD Nacional
2
3
5
8
12
16
17
15
13
9
Rio Ave
1
3
5
7
11
14
18
21
20
Casa Pia
1
2
4
7
11
14
18
21
21
Estoril Praia
1
2
4
7
11
15
21
36
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites to win Primeira Liga?
Porto finish as champions in 55% of our 10.000 simulations of the rest of the season, ahead of Benfica (35%).
Which teams are most at risk of relegation from Primeira Liga?
According to our simulations: Estoril Praia (58 %), Casa Pia (42 %), Rio Ave (41 %), Marítimo (22 %).
How it works
- We start from the real table and play the remaining matches one by one, using our model's probabilities (Poisson and Elo).
- We repeat the season 10,000 times and count how often each team finishes in each position. It updates twice a day.
- Ties are broken by goal difference as an approximation; some leagues use head-to-head, so it may differ when teams are level on points.
