Simulation · our own model
Who will win Ligue 1?
We simulate the remaining 225 matches 10.000 times with our model, starting from the real table.
Updated: Fri 6 Nov · after matchday 9 · See table and fixtures
Title favourites
Paris Saint-Germain95%
Paris Saint-GermainChasing a Champions League place (top 3)
Marseille36%
MarseilleMost at risk of relegation
Le Havre74%
Le Havre-
1
Paris Saint-Germain
20
75
95%
>99%
0%
-
3
Lyon
17
57
2%
44%
0%
-
6
Marseille
15
56
1%
36%
<1%
-
2
Lille
18
55
1%
28%
<1%
-
4
Paris FC
17
54
1%
28%
<1%
-
5
Stade Rennais
16
54
<1%
23%
<1%
-
7
Monaco
15
53
1%
21%
<1%
-
9
RC Lens
13
48
<1%
7%
<1%
-
12
Strasbourg
10
47
<1%
5%
1%
-
8
Nice
14
45
<1%
2%
1%
-
10
Brest
12
45
0%
2%
1%
-
11
Lorient
12
44
0%
2%
2%
-
13
Toulouse
10
43
<1%
1%
3%
-
14
Auxerre
10
39
0%
<1%
13%
-
17
Le Mans
7
36
0%
<1%
24%
-
15
Troyes
8
34
0%
0%
33%
-
16
Angers SCO
8
32
0%
0%
48%
-
18
Le Havre
2
28
0%
0%
74%
“Final pts” is the average points total at the end of the season across all simulations. ▲▼: change in percentage points over 7 days.
Where will each team finish?
Share of simulations in which each team ends up in each position. The stronger the colour, the more likely.
123456789101112131415161718 Paris Saint-Germain
95
4
Lyon
2
24
18
15
11
9
7
5
3
2
1
Marseille
1
18
17
14
12
11
9
6
4
3
2
1
Lille
14
13
13
13
12
9
8
6
4
3
2
1
Paris FC
13
15
13
13
11
10
7
6
4
3
2
Stade Rennais
11
12
13
12
11
10
9
7
5
4
2
2
Monaco
9
11
12
12
11
10
10
7
6
4
3
2
RC Lens
3
4
6
7
8
10
11
11
10
9
7
6
4
2
Strasbourg
2
3
5
6
8
9
10
10
11
10
10
7
5
3
1
Nice
1
2
4
5
6
8
11
11
12
12
11
8
5
3
1
Brest
2
3
4
5
6
8
10
11
12
11
10
8
5
3
1
Lorient
1
2
3
5
5
7
9
11
12
12
12
9
6
3
1
Toulouse
2
2
3
5
7
9
11
12
12
12
10
7
4
2
Auxerre
1
2
3
5
7
10
13
16
16
12
8
4
Le Mans
2
3
4
6
10
14
17
19
15
9
Troyes
1
2
3
5
7
11
17
21
19
14
Angers SCO
1
3
5
8
13
20
27
21
Le Havre
1
2
3
7
13
23
51
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites to win Ligue 1?
Paris Saint-Germain finish as champions in 95% of our 10.000 simulations of the rest of the season, ahead of Lyon (2%).
Which teams are most at risk of relegation from Ligue 1?
According to our simulations: Le Havre (74 %), Angers SCO (48 %), Troyes (33 %), Le Mans (24 %).
How it works
- We start from the real table and play the remaining matches one by one, using our model's probabilities (Poisson and Elo).
- We repeat the season 10,000 times and count how often each team finishes in each position. It updates twice a day.
- Ties are broken by goal difference as an approximation; some leagues use head-to-head, so it may differ when teams are level on points.
