Simulation · our own model
Who will win LaLiga?
We simulate the remaining 270 matches 10.000 times with our model, starting from the real table.
Updated: Fri 6 Nov · after matchday 11 · See table and fixtures
Title favourites
Barcelona80%
BarcelonaChasing a Champions League place (top 4)
Real Sociedad13%
Real SociedadMost at risk of relegation
Málaga80%
Málaga-
1
Barcelona
30
90
80%
>99%
0%
-
3
Real Madrid
27
83
17%
>99%
0%
-
2
Atlético Madrid
28
75
2%
97%
0%
-
4
Real Betis
23
65
<1%
71%
0%
-
5
Real Sociedad
19
56
0%
13%
<1%
-
9
Villarreal
12
52
0%
5%
2%
-
7
Athletic
15
51
0%
4%
2%
-
6
Sevilla
17
51
0%
3%
3%
-
8
Deportivo
14
50
0%
3%
3%
-
10
Rayo Vallecano
12
47
0%
1%
8%
-
11
Celta
12
47
0%
1%
8%
-
17
Elche
10
45
0%
1%
13%
-
12
Alavés
12
45
0%
<1%
15%
-
14
Espanyol
11
44
0%
<1%
17%
-
18
Levante
10
44
0%
<1%
19%
-
13
Getafe
12
43
0%
<1%
23%
-
19
Valencia
9
42
0%
<1%
27%
-
15
Osasuna
11
41
0%
<1%
34%
-
16
Santander
11
39
0%
<1%
46%
-
20
Málaga
5
33
0%
<1%
80%
“Final pts” is the average points total at the end of the season across all simulations. ▲▼: change in percentage points over 7 days.
Where will each team finish?
Share of simulations in which each team ends up in each position. The stronger the colour, the more likely.
1234567891011121314151617181920 Barcelona
80
17
2
Real Madrid
17
65
16
2
Atlético Madrid
2
17
65
14
2
Real Betis
2
14
55
16
6
3
2
Real Sociedad
1
12
25
17
13
9
6
5
3
2
2
1
1
Villarreal
5
13
14
13
11
9
8
6
5
5
4
3
2
1
1
Athletic
3
10
12
12
11
10
8
7
6
5
4
3
3
2
1
Sevilla
3
8
11
11
11
10
9
8
7
5
5
4
3
3
1
1
Deportivo
3
8
11
11
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
2
1
Rayo Vallecano
1
3
6
7
7
9
8
9
9
8
7
7
6
5
4
3
1
Celta
4
6
8
8
8
9
8
8
8
7
7
6
5
4
3
1
Elche
2
4
5
6
7
8
8
8
9
8
7
7
7
6
5
2
Alavés
2
3
4
5
6
7
7
8
9
9
8
8
8
7
5
3
Espanyol
2
2
4
5
6
7
7
7
8
8
9
9
8
8
7
3
Levante
1
2
3
5
5
6
7
8
8
9
9
9
9
8
7
4
Getafe
2
2
3
4
6
6
7
8
8
9
10
10
10
9
5
Valencia
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
7
8
9
9
10
10
10
7
Osasuna
1
2
3
3
5
5
6
7
9
11
12
13
12
8
Santander
1
2
3
3
4
5
6
7
9
12
14
18
14
Málaga
1
2
3
4
7
10
19
51
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites to win LaLiga?
Barcelona finish as champions in 80% of our 10.000 simulations of the rest of the season, ahead of Real Madrid (17%).
Which teams are most at risk of relegation from LaLiga?
According to our simulations: Málaga (80 %), Santander (46 %), Osasuna (34 %), Valencia (27 %).
How it works
- We start from the real table and play the remaining matches one by one, using our model's probabilities (Poisson and Elo).
- We repeat the season 10,000 times and count how often each team finishes in each position. It updates twice a day.
- Ties are broken by goal difference as an approximation; some leagues use head-to-head, so it may differ when teams are level on points.
