Simulation · our own model
Who will win Eredivisie?
We simulate the remaining 207 matches 10.000 times with our model, starting from the real table.
Updated: Fri 6 Nov · after matchday 12 · See table and fixtures
Title favourites
PSV48%
PSVChasing a Champions League place (top 2)
PSV73%
PSVMost at risk of relegation
Willem II99%
Willem II-
3
PSV
23
70
48%
73%
0%
-
4
Twente
23
66
18%
42%
0%
-
2
Ajax
24
66
17%
41%
0%
-
1
Feyenoord
25
65
16%
39%
0%
-
5
AZ
20
55
1%
3%
0%
-
7
Heerenveen
18
53
<1%
1%
<1%
-
6
Sittard
19
49
<1%
<1%
<1%
-
8
Groningen
15
48
<1%
<1%
<1%
-
9
Cambuur
15
47
<1%
<1%
<1%
-
13
NEC
11
44
0%
<1%
1%
-
10
Go Ahead
14
42
0%
<1%
3%
-
11
Utrecht
12
42
0%
0%
3%
-
16
Telstar
9
38
0%
0%
8%
-
12
Sparta
12
38
0%
0%
11%
-
14
Excelsior
11
36
0%
0%
17%
-
15
Zwolle
11
36
0%
0%
20%
-
17
Den Haag
6
32
0%
0%
37%
-
18
Willem II
2
17
0%
0%
99%
“Final pts” is the average points total at the end of the season across all simulations. ▲▼: change in percentage points over 7 days.
Where will each team finish?
Share of simulations in which each team ends up in each position. The stronger the colour, the more likely.
123456789101112131415161718 PSV
48
26
15
8
3
Twente
18
24
25
21
8
3
Ajax
17
23
25
21
8
3
1
Feyenoord
16
23
25
21
8
3
1
AZ
2
6
13
27
21
13
8
5
3
2
Heerenveen
1
3
8
19
22
16
11
8
5
3
2
Sittard
2
7
13
15
15
13
11
8
6
4
3
1
Groningen
3
8
11
15
15
13
10
8
6
4
2
2
Cambuur
2
6
10
13
15
13
12
9
7
5
4
2
NEC
3
5
9
11
13
13
12
10
9
6
4
3
1
Go Ahead
1
3
5
8
10
12
13
13
11
10
7
5
3
Utrecht
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
12
12
10
8
6
3
Telstar
2
3
5
7
9
12
13
14
13
11
8
Sparta
1
3
4
6
8
11
13
14
15
13
10
Excelsior
2
3
4
6
9
11
13
16
18
17
Zwolle
1
2
4
6
7
10
13
17
19
19
Den Haag
2
3
5
6
10
15
22
34
2
Willem II
4
95
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites to win Eredivisie?
PSV finish as champions in 48% of our 10.000 simulations of the rest of the season, ahead of Twente (18%).
Which teams are most at risk of relegation from Eredivisie?
According to our simulations: Willem II (99 %), Den Haag (37 %).
How it works
- We start from the real table and play the remaining matches one by one, using our model's probabilities (Poisson and Elo).
- We repeat the season 10,000 times and count how often each team finishes in each position. It updates twice a day.
- Ties are broken by goal difference as an approximation; some leagues use head-to-head, so it may differ when teams are level on points.
