Simulation · our own model
Who will win Championship?
We simulate the remaining 384 matches 10.000 times with our model, starting from the real table.
Updated: Fri 6 Nov · after matchday 14 · See table and fixtures
Title favourites
Middlesbrough36%
MiddlesbroughChasing automatic promotion (top 2)
Southampton60%
SouthamptonMost at risk of relegation
Preston NE90%
Preston NE-
1
Middlesbrough
28
84
36%
60%
0%
-
7
Southampton
24
83
35%
60%
0%
-
3
Birmingham
26
79
14%
33%
0%
-
5
Swansea
26
74
4%
12%
<1%
-
8
West Ham
23
73
4%
10%
<1%
-
6
West Brom
25
71
2%
5%
<1%
-
4
Stoke
26
70
1%
4%
<1%
-
9
Sheffield Utd
22
70
1%
4%
<1%
-
12
Norwich
18
68
1%
3%
<1%
-
2
Wolverhampton
27
68
1%
3%
<1%
-
13
Millwall
18
68
1%
2%
<1%
-
10
Portsmouth
22
67
<1%
2%
<1%
-
11
QPR
21
65
<1%
1%
<1%
-
16
Wrexham
17
63
<1%
1%
1%
-
15
Bristol City
18
59
0%
<1%
3%
-
14
Blackburn
18
59
0%
<1%
2%
-
17
Bolton
17
58
0%
<1%
4%
-
18
Cardiff
15
57
<1%
<1%
4%
-
19
Lincoln City
15
52
<1%
<1%
17%
-
20
Watford
14
48
0%
0%
34%
-
21
Charlton
14
48
0%
0%
35%
-
22
Burnley
10
45
0%
0%
53%
-
23
Derby County
7
44
0%
0%
56%
-
24
Preston NE
5
37
0%
0%
90%
“Final pts” is the average points total at the end of the season across all simulations. ▲▼: change in percentage points over 7 days.
Where will each team finish?
Share of simulations in which each team ends up in each position. The stronger the colour, the more likely.
123456789101112131415161718192021222324 Middlesbrough
36
24
14
9
6
4
2
2
1
Southampton
35
25
15
10
6
3
2
2
Birmingham
14
18
18
14
10
7
5
4
3
2
1
1
Swansea
4
8
11
11
11
11
9
7
7
5
5
3
3
2
2
West Ham
4
7
9
10
10
10
9
8
7
6
5
5
3
2
2
1
West Brom
2
4
6
8
9
9
9
9
8
7
7
6
5
4
3
3
1
Stoke
1
3
5
6
8
9
8
8
8
8
8
7
6
5
4
2
2
1
Sheffield Utd
1
3
5
7
8
9
9
9
8
8
7
7
5
5
4
3
2
1
Norwich
2
4
6
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
7
7
5
4
3
2
2
Wolverhampton
2
4
5
6
7
8
8
8
8
8
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
Millwall
1
3
4
6
7
8
8
8
9
8
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Portsmouth
1
2
4
5
6
6
7
8
8
8
8
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
QPR
2
3
4
5
6
7
7
8
8
8
8
8
7
6
5
3
2
1
Wrexham
1
2
3
4
5
5
7
7
8
9
9
8
8
8
6
4
3
1
Bristol City
1
2
3
3
4
5
6
8
8
10
10
11
10
8
5
3
2
Blackburn
1
2
2
3
4
5
6
8
9
10
11
10
10
8
6
3
2
Bolton
1
2
2
3
4
5
6
8
9
11
12
11
9
7
5
3
1
Cardiff
1
2
2
3
4
5
6
8
9
11
11
11
10
7
5
3
1
Lincoln City
1
2
3
5
7
9
11
15
14
12
9
6
2
Watford
1
2
4
5
9
11
15
17
16
13
6
Charlton
1
2
3
5
8
11
15
17
17
13
5
Burnley
1
2
3
5
8
11
16
20
21
12
Derby County
2
3
5
7
11
15
19
23
14
Preston NE
1
3
5
10
20
60
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites to win Championship?
Middlesbrough finish as champions in 36% of our 10.000 simulations of the rest of the season, ahead of Southampton (35%).
Which teams are most at risk of relegation from Championship?
According to our simulations: Preston NE (90 %), Derby County (56 %), Burnley (53 %), Charlton (35 %).
How it works
- We start from the real table and play the remaining matches one by one, using our model's probabilities (Poisson and Elo).
- We repeat the season 10,000 times and count how often each team finishes in each position. It updates twice a day.
- Ties are broken by goal difference as an approximation; some leagues use head-to-head, so it may differ when teams are level on points.
