Simulation · our own model
Who will win Bundesliga?
We simulate the remaining 234 matches 10.000 times with our model, starting from the real table.
Updated: Fri 6 Nov · after matchday 9 · See table and fixtures
Title favourites
Bayern89%
BayernChasing a Champions League place (top 4)
Leverkusen36%
LeverkusenMost at risk of relegation
M'gladbach52%
M'gladbach-
1
Bayern
18
77
89%
>99%
0%
-
2
Dortmund
18
67
10%
96%
0%
-
4
RB Leipzig
15
56
<1%
52%
<1%
-
3
Freiburg
16
54
<1%
42%
<1%
-
6
Leverkusen
13
53
<1%
36%
<1%
-
10
Stuttgart
9
52
<1%
31%
<1%
-
7
Elversberg
13
49
<1%
14%
1%
-
5
Bremen
15
48
<1%
11%
1%
-
11
Hoffenheim
9
45
0%
6%
3%
-
8
Frankfurt
11
44
<1%
3%
5%
-
9
Mainz
10
43
0%
3%
6%
-
12
Augsburg
9
42
0%
2%
7%
-
13
SC Paderborn
9
41
0%
2%
8%
-
14
HSV
9
37
0%
<1%
24%
-
15
1. FC Köln
9
37
0%
<1%
22%
-
17
Schalke
6
37
0%
<1%
27%
-
16
Union Berlin
7
34
0%
<1%
44%
-
18
M'gladbach
4
33
0%
<1%
52%
“Final pts” is the average points total at the end of the season across all simulations. ▲▼: change in percentage points over 7 days.
Where will each team finish?
Share of simulations in which each team ends up in each position. The stronger the colour, the more likely.
123456789101112131415161718 Bayern
89
10
Dortmund
10
66
14
5
2
1
RB Leipzig
9
24
20
15
11
7
5
4
2
1
Freiburg
6
18
18
15
12
10
7
5
3
2
2
Leverkusen
4
15
17
16
13
10
8
5
4
3
2
1
Stuttgart
3
13
15
15
13
11
8
7
5
4
2
2
Elversberg
1
5
8
10
12
12
12
9
8
7
5
4
3
2
Bremen
4
7
8
11
12
11
11
10
8
6
5
3
2
2
Hoffenheim
2
3
5
7
9
9
10
10
10
9
8
6
5
3
2
Frankfurt
2
4
5
7
9
9
10
10
10
9
8
6
5
3
2
Mainz
1
2
3
5
6
8
9
10
10
10
9
8
7
6
4
2
Augsburg
2
3
4
5
7
9
9
10
10
10
9
8
6
4
3
SC Paderborn
1
2
3
5
6
8
9
10
11
10
10
9
7
5
3
HSV
1
2
3
4
5
7
8
9
11
13
13
13
11
1. FC Köln
2
3
4
6
7
8
10
12
13
13
13
9
Schalke
2
2
3
5
6
8
9
11
13
14
14
13
Union Berlin
1
1
2
3
5
7
9
11
15
20
24
M'gladbach
2
2
4
5
7
10
15
20
32
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites to win Bundesliga?
Bayern finish as champions in 89% of our 10.000 simulations of the rest of the season, ahead of Dortmund (10%).
Which teams are most at risk of relegation from Bundesliga?
According to our simulations: M'gladbach (52 %), Union Berlin (44 %), Schalke (27 %), HSV (24 %).
How it works
- We start from the real table and play the remaining matches one by one, using our model's probabilities (Poisson and Elo).
- We repeat the season 10,000 times and count how often each team finishes in each position. It updates twice a day.
- Ties are broken by goal difference as an approximation; some leagues use head-to-head, so it may differ when teams are level on points.
