System track record
We publish every result, misses included. A 60% probability means that, in similar matches, that outcome should happen about 6 times in 10: not that it will happen.
58.3%Hit rate 1X2
12Predictions
0.539Brier score
66.7%Hit rate · All
Measures calibration: the lower, the better (0 = perfect).
Calibration
When we say X%, how often does it happen?
Each dot groups our estimates (result, goals and both teams to score). On the diagonal, the probability was honest: when we say 60%, it happens about 6 times in 10. Above the line we were cautious; below it, too optimistic. Bigger dots mean more predictions behind them.
When we estimated 50–60%, it happened 75% of the time (20 predictions).
Result (1X2) detail
38%
33% n=6
46%
75% n=4
Estimated probability Actual frequency
By market
| Predictions | Hit rate | Brier | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | 12 | 58.3% | 0.539 |
| Over/under 2.5 | 12 | 58.3% | 0.502 |
| Both teams to score | 12 | 83.3% | 0.443 |
By league
| Predictions | Hit rate | Brier | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Champions League | 9 | 77.8% | 0.486 |
| Championship | 3 | 0.0% | 0.698 |
Latest settled predictions
| RB Leipzig – Man City | 2–3 | 2 (39%) | Hit |
| Slavia Praha – Arsenal | 1–2 | 2 (49%) | Hit |
| PSV – Club Brugge | 1–2 | 1 (43%) | Miss |
| Dortmund – Real Betis | 2–1 | 1 (58%) | Hit |
| Porto – Napoli | 4–1 | 1 (52%) | Hit |
| RC Lens – Como 1907 | 1–9 | 1 (37%) | Miss |
| Viking – Sabah FK | 4–1 | 1 (43%) | Hit |
| Bristol City – Wolverhampton | 1–2 | 1 (38%) | Miss |
| Cardiff – West Ham | 3–3 | 2 (37%) | Miss |
| Wrexham – Middlesbrough | 2–0 | 2 (39%) | Miss |
Premium members see the full match-by-match history.
Backtesting
| Predictions | Hit rate | Brier | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaLiga · bt-2425_2526 | Market | 760 | 55.0% | 0.566 |
| LaLiga · bt-2425_2526 | Statistical model | 760 | 52.6% | 0.583 |
| Premier League · bt-2425_2526 | Market | 760 | 52.5% | 0.592 |
| Premier League · bt-2425_2526 | Statistical model | 760 | 47.8% | 0.619 |
| Serie A · bt-2425_2526 | Market | 760 | 54.1% | 0.575 |
| Serie A · bt-2425_2526 | Statistical model | 760 | 53.2% | 0.594 |
| Bundesliga · bt-2425_2526 | Market | 612 | 54.7% | 0.576 |
| Bundesliga · bt-2425_2526 | Statistical model | 612 | 51.5% | 0.599 |
| Ligue 1 · bt-2425_2526 | Market | 612 | 54.4% | 0.573 |
| Ligue 1 · bt-2425_2526 | Statistical model | 612 | 52.6% | 0.589 |